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insight by wfx

Welcome to Wordwide FX's new enterprise!

Insight by WFX is a synthesis of our passion for languages and the financial markets. Here you will find technical and fundamental analyses from our clients, media partners and contributors in different languages, as well as discussions on languages and translation. And of course we will keep you updated on what is happening inside Wordwide FX Financial Translations. Hope you enjoy it! Greetings from the Wordwide FX team!

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08/01/2019

Minyak Mentah WTI: Faktor fundamental yang bertolak belakang

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By Lukman Otunuga @Lukman_FXTM, Research Analyst with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Kekhawatiran yang belum berakhir mengenai pasokan berlebihan dan isyarat penurunan permintaan mengekspos pasar minyak pada kerugian besar di kuartal terakhir tahun 2018. Pandangan pesimis bahwa ekonomi global akan melambat di tahun 2019 membuat prospek minyak tetap negatif memasuki tahun baru ini. 

Risiko geopolitik yang belum berakhir dalam bentuk ketegangan dagang antara AS-China menjadi masalah signifikan terhadap prospek permintaan minyak, dan banyak negara yang melaporkan data ekonomi yang lebih lemah. Ini menyiratkan bahwa bears tetap memegang kendali terhadap fluktuasi minyak di jangka pendek. Kekhawatiran mengenai perlambatan ekonomi global lebih dominan dibanding topik OPEC, karena perhatian pasar akan terfokus pada masalah perlambatan global yang meningkatkan ketidakpastian dan mendorong aksi jual aset berisiko seperti minyak.

Memasuki tahun 2019, harga minyak akan terombang-ambing oleh sejumlah faktor fundamental yang saling berlawanan. Keadaan pasar yang tidak pasti juga akan mewarnai prospek jangka menengah dan panjang. Pemangkasan produksi OPEC dan Rusia dapat mengurangi pasokan yang berlebih, namun juga akan mendorong produksi minyak AS yang lebih tinggi sehingga mengekspos pasar minyak pada masalah oversuplai yang lebih besar lagi. Keadaan dagang AS-China yang semakin tegang, keadaan ekonomi global, dan terutama permintaan minyak China akan sangat memengaruhi permintaan. Pertanda bahwa ekonomi China semakin melambat di tengah ketegangan dagang akan menjadi berita yang sangat buruk bagi pasar energi, terutama mengingat bahwa Asia adalah konsumen besar di pasar minyak.

Penggerak lain yang memengaruhi harga minyak di Q1 antara lain kinerja Dolar dan Tweet dari Presiden AS Donald Trump. Dolar yang melemah di tengah spekulasi bahwa Fed akan menghentikan sementara kenaikan suku bunga akan berdampak positif bagi harga minyak karena denominasi komoditas ini adalah Dolar. Presiden Trump sudah merayakan harga minyak yang rendah melalui Twitter dan memprediksi penurunan lebih lanjut tahun ini. Karena itu, investor perlu bersiap menghadapi kuartal trading yang tetap volatil.

Dari sudut pandang teknis, minyak mentah WTI jelas bearish di rentang mingguan dan bulanan. Penutupan tahunan tegas di bawah $50 pada 2018 menandakan bahwa bears tetap memegang kendali dan level perhatian penting berikutnya adalah $45, $43, dan $36. Trader mingguan akan mencermati bagaimana harga bereaksi terhadap level $43 dan menggunakan rentang ini untuk menilai apakah pantulan teknikal mungkin terjadi.

Pada rentang harian, WTI tetap bearish. Level support sebelumnya yaitu sekitar $50 dapat membuka jalan menuju $43. Sebaliknya, breakout di atas $50 dapat membuka jalan menuju $55.30.

Dinamika permintaan-penawaran jelas tidak terlihat menguntungkan bagi pasar minyak, dan bears menguasai WTI.

 

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07/12/2018

Gorillas, elephants, and tigers: the market jungle

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

The financial market vocabulary might sound serious but sometimes it is quite the opposite. Besides from the well-know bears vs. bulls and haws vs. doves, our particular financial jungle is inhabited by gorillas, tigers, both adult and cubs, lions, wolfs, elephants, sharks, alligators, dead cats, cockroaches, and killer bees. Investopedia explains all these concepts.

 “Elephants” are large institutions with funds to make high volumes trades, therefore with large influence on the price of a financial asset. “Gorillas” are the firms that dominate an industry without having a complete monopoly, and “killer bees” are firms or individuals that help a company fend off a takeover attempt. Companies use a variety of anti-takeover measures, sometimes referred to as “shark repellents”. When a company reveals as news to the public, the feeling is that more bad news will follow soon, same as when you see a cockroach you might think there are many more hidden: this is the principle of the “cockroach theory”.

Tigers, lions, and wolfs, some of the most impressive predators of the animal kingdom, are used to describe economies. A tiger economy is the economy of a country that undergoes rapid economic growth. The term was originally used for the Four Asian Tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore) as tigers are important in Asian symbolism. That inspired the Tiger Cub Economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines), the Anatolian Tigers, the Gulf Tiger (Dubai), the Celtic Tiger (Ireland), the Baltic Tiger (Baltic States), and the Tatra Tiger (Slovakia). For emerging economies in Africa, we say lion economies, and in Mongolia “wolf economy” is used.

Little to say about the bulls and the bears, well-known concepts of the financial markets, but less famous is the concept “bear hug”, an offer made by one company to buy the shares of another for a much higher per-share price than what that company is worth. An alligator spread is an unprofitable spread that occurs as a result of large commissions charged on the transaction, regardless of favorable market movements, and a dead cat bounce is, as most of us know, a short-lived recovery in the price of a declining security.

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11/10/2018

El EURUSD marca nuevos máximos de sesión

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By Greg Michalowski @GregMikeFX, Director of Client Education at ForexLive. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

El EURUSD ha marcado nuevos máximos de sesión tras conocerse el IPC, que ha resultado bastante moderado. El precio marcó un máximo de 1,5988 (digamos 1,600) y luego ha retrocedido un poco.

Si echamos un vistazo al gráfico horario (abajo), veremos que el recorrido alcista rompió sobre una línea de tendencia de canal en 1,1592. Ahora, el precio se opera por encima y por debajo de esta línea, y los traders evalúan si el par debe seguir su recorrido hasta el 50% (bajada desde el máximo del 24 de septiembre) y la importante MM de 100 días en la zona de 1,1623-26. Esta zona debería hallar vendedores en caso de ataque.

Abajo, vigilaremos la zona de 1,15778, pues podría proporcionar soporte. El máximo registrado durante la sesión asiática se dio en 1,572. La zona de 1,572-78 debería aguantar si los compradores quieren mant4ner el control del mercado. Si el precio, en cambio, pierde posiciones, el panorama alcista quedaría un tanto en entredicho.

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02/10/2018

El EURUSD marca mínimos y rebota

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By Greg Michalowski @GregMikeFX, Director of Client Education at ForexLive. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

El EURUSD ha abierto la jornada de hoy a la baja en reacción a los sucesos de Italia y, en el proceso, ha caído hacia un área de mínimos en 1,1609-29 - ver zona amarilla en el gráfico diario, abajo.

 

En esta zona se han dado varios swings desde el mes de mayo. En agosto, el precio rompió bajo esta zona durante 7 jornadas. Posteriormente, volvió a subir sobre este área, que que se puso a prueba de nuevo en agosto y septiembre, y el precio rebotó.

El de hoy ha sido el primer ataque este mes (el precio ha registrado un mínimo de 1,1504) y los vendedores han tenido su ocasión, pero los compradores han entrado otra vez en el juego y el precio se ha recuperado.

Ahora mismo, el par se pasea sobre los 1,1538. Si el mínimo es sólido, los traders una vez más deben tratar de apoyarse sobre esta zona en caídas.

Pasemos ahora al gráfico de 5 minutos, abajo, pues los factores técnicos deberían darnos pistas sobre hacia dónde se dirige el precio. Si nos fijamos, veremos que ha estado bajando durante la sesión de Londres y que se ha alejado de la MM de 100 sesiones (línea azul en el gráfico inferior).

La corrección sacó al precio de la zona de mínimos, lo empujó sobre la MM y ahora trata de aguantar la línea como soporte. Si conseguimos aguantar encima, la corrección tendrá más recorrido. Si volvemos atrás y caemos a 1,1529 (de nuevo en la zona de swings en el diario), el sesgo no quedará tan claro y no podemos descartar un ataque sobre 1,1509.

Si quieres leer el análisis original, haz clic aquí

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11/09/2018

People are more honest when using a foreign tongue, research finds

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

New UChicago-led research suggests that someone who speaks in a foreign language is probably more credible than the average native speaker.

Boaz Keysar, professor of psychology at the University of Chicago, and Yoella Bereby-Meyer, professor in psychology at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Israel, co-authored a recent paper in Topics in Cognitive Science that sheds new light on the role language plays in the natural impulse to lie.

In the research, native speakers of English, Spanish, Hebrew and Korean in four countries were invited to play a dice game in which they were paid according to the numbers they reported. Participants who used a foreign language were less likely to cheat than those using their native language, researchers found.

“When individuals have a chance to profit from dishonesty with no risk of being caught, their instinctive tendency is to cheat, while they refrain from cheating when they have time to deliberate,” Bereby-Meyer said. Such opportunities often occur in everyday situations, such as lying about a child’s age to get a cheaper ticket price, or not speaking up when you receive too much change. “There is a natural temptation to lie in these situations,” she added.

Roll of the dice

Working with groups in Spain, the United States, Israel and the Netherlands, researchers randomly assigned participants to perform the game in their native language or in a foreign language. They were paid according to the numbers they reported, and because the outcome was private, participants could cheat to inflate their profit without risk of repercussions.

Even though the game itself only involves reading numbers on a dice, all of the interaction was in the designated language and participants clicked on ‘number words’ on the screen, Bereby-Meyer said. “The die paradigm was a natural way to examine language’s effect on honesty.”

Even though the participants’ responses were private, the higher proportion of 5s or 6s selected by native language users showed that participants had a greater tendency to inflate their numbers when working in their native language.

“Even though there wasn’t much language involved, just being in a foreign language mindset made them more likely to resist temptation,” said Sayuri Hayakawa, a UChicago graduate student who was in charge of the UChicago part of the project.

Check your bias

Keysar and Bereby-Meyer argue that the findings challenge theories of ethical behavior to account for the role of the language in shaping ethical behavior. They believe the outcome is due to the fact that using a foreign language is less intuitive, so the automatic response systems that might give rise to cheating may be disengaged. “There is less temptation, so it becomes easier to refrain from impulsive behavior,” Bereby-Meyer said.

The study also provides a compelling narrative about inherent biases toward foreigners. “Studies have shown people with accents are perceived as less credible because they can be more difficult to understand,” Keysar said. These results suggest the opposite may be true.

Keysar believes this research has important implications, particularly in global business, in which companies work with foreign suppliers and customers on a daily basis. Even though a person’s gut instinct may be to trust these people less, the data show that if they are using a foreign language, they might be more honest.

Bereby-Meyer and Keysar plan to continue their work together in a new study exploring how language affects trust. The most recent study was done in collaboration with Shaul Shalvi from the University of Amsterdam, Albert Costa and Joanna Corey from the Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Sayuri Hayakawa from the University of Chicago.

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05/09/2018

무역갈등 우려 재부각에 증시 하락

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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

지난주 투자자들은 미국과 멕시코 간의 긍정적 합의 무드가 캐나다, 유럽, 더 나아가 중국까지 이어질 것으로 기대했습니다. 하지만 미국과 캐나다가 합의에 실패함에 따라 이러한 기대감은 좌절되었습니다. 트럼프 대통령은 공정한 협상을 타결할 수 없다면 캐나다를 제외할 것이며, 의회가 간섭을 한다면 NAFTA에서 완전히 탈퇴할 것이라고 위협했습니다. 

또한 트럼프 대통령이 예정 대로 2,000억 달러 규모의 중국산 제품에 대해 관세를 부과한다면 이는 전례 없는 수준의 무역전쟁이 됩니다. 이 관세 부과 조치는 공청회 기간이 끝나는 이번 주 목요일에 시행되게 됩니다. 이에 대해 중국은 600억 달러 규모의 미국 제품에 대해 보복 관세를 부과할 것이라고 예고한 바 있습니다. 이 조치가 예정대로 진행된다면 중국으로 수출되는 미국산 제품의 85%가 관세의 영향을 받게 됩니다. 반면에,중국산 수입품은 총 5,050억 달러 중 절반이 관세의 영향을 받게 됩니다. 

월요일 중국 상하이 종합지수와 CSI300 지수가 1% 이상 하락했습니다. 주가는 저평가 영역에 진입했지만 향후 무역전쟁 전개 방향 둘러싼 불확실성과 경제성장률 영향을 감안할 때 투자자들은 계속해서 중국 주식을 매도할 것으로 보입니다.  이는 장기 가치 투자자에게 훌륭한 매수 기회가 될 것입니다. 위험선호 심리가 약해졌으므로 화요일에 거래가 재개되는 미국 증시는 조정이 예상됩니다. 

월요일 경제지표 발표에서는 중국 8월 제조업 성장률이 14개월래 최저치 를 기록한 것으로 나타났습니다. 8월 Caixin/Markit 제조업 PMI는 5개월 연속으로 위축된 수출 주문의 영향으로 50.6으로 하락했습니다. PMI 지수가 경기 위축 영역에 접근함에 따라 정책결정자가 경기부양을 위해 어떤 조치를 내놓는지 주목할 필요가 있습니다. 

유럽 역시 지난 달 독일과 프랑스 PMI 지수가 소폭 개선된 이후 무역갈등으로 인해 하락했을 수 있는 PMI 최종치가 투자자의 주목을 받을 것 같습니다.  하지만 파운드화가 1.3 밑으로 하락한 만큼, 투자자 대부분은 영국 제조업 PMI에 주목할 것으로 보입니다.
 

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