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insight by wfx

Welcome to Wordwide FX's new enterprise!

Insight by WFX is a synthesis of our passion for languages and the financial markets. Here you will find technical and fundamental analyses from our clients, media partners and contributors in different languages, as well as discussions on languages and translation. And of course we will keep you updated on what is happening inside Wordwide FX Financial Translations. Hope you enjoy it! Greetings from the Wordwide FX team!

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10/06/2019

Barcelona's Casa de Canvi: The First Regulator in History

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

The first "regulator" in history was established in Barcelona in 1041. That year, a bank of exchange and of common and safe deposit was established under the authority of the municipal magistracy, that ended up working as a de facto regulator of commerce and bankers. The Casa de canvi ("house of exchange" in Catalan) was the first entity of this kind in Europe, as the Bank of St. George at Genoa was not established until 1407. In this kind of common bank communities and individuals kept commodities and cash in any currency and credit was given according to the value of each project.

The late 14th century and early 15th century was a time of crisis all around Europe. The plague had killed a big deal of population - Barcelona had 50.000 inhabitants in 1348 and c. 28.000 in 1400. The plague attacked a population that knew nothing of hygiene and sanitary conditions and that could not defend themselves from an unknown virus. The church blamed the Jewish population on grounds that they refused to adhere to the "true faith". Commerce, external and internal, was paralyzed. Thus the bank of exchange was born as a means to boost, regulate, and protect maritime commerce. 

The goals of the Taula de canvi were to fund trade initiatives that because of the hardships of the time did not have or could not find funding, and to regulate trade and control bankers that committed fraud or other offences. If such a thing happened, the responsible for the Casa de canvi smashed that banker's money-changing table with a hammer and the offender was taken to justice. It was at that time that the word "bankruptcy" (that literally means, "break a bank" - the word "bank" meant originally "bench", "table") became popular.

Below, Barcelona in the14th century. From George Braun and Frans Hogenberg, Civitates Orbis Terrarum (1572). Source, Viquipèdia.

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07/06/2019

Ketegangan dagang global beri bayang-bayang panjang pada sentimen pasar

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By Han Tan @HancTan, Market Analyst with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Saat belahan bumi utara memasuki musim panas, sentimen pasar di seluruh dunia mengarah ke selatan karena ketegangan dagang global yang semakin memanas. 

Investor secara umum telah mendapat pengetahuan bahwa masalah dagang ini adalah prahara global yang akan melibatkan banyak negara di seluruh dunia. Ini sama sekali bukan kabar gembira bagi sentimen pasar maupun momentum ekonomi, dan kita harus bersiap menghadapi berbagai potensi revisi terhadap proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia karena keadaan eksternal yang serba tak menentu untuk perdagangan global.  

Ketidakpastian eksternal perkuat permintaan safe haven 

Keadaan yang membawa banyak ketidakpastian eksternal mengenai perdagangan global akan memastikan bahwa selera terhadap safe haven akan tetap tinggi. Investor diperkirakan akan sangat berhati-hati dalam menambahkan risiko ke portofolio mereka karena keadaan pasar yang rapuh. 

Emas berhasil melampaui $1309 setelah menguat sekitar 2,7 persen sejak 30 Mei. Yen Jepang berada di level terkuat terhadap Dolar AS sejak Januari, bertengger di wilayah 108 bawah pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Imbal hasil obligasi Treasury 10-Tahun AS merosot di bahwa 2,13 persen ke level terendah sejak September 2017.

Ekuitas global baru saja mencatatkan penurunan bulanan pertama di 2019, menambah risiko yang tampak menjadi opsi yang tak memungkinkan bagi investor saat ini. 

Kecuali Presiden Trump berbalik drastis dan mulai peduli terhadap ekonomi global alih-alih mengutamakan janji kampanyenya, pasar harus menghadapi iklim investasi yang didominasi oleh ketegangan dagang dan kekhawatiran yang semakin meningkat.

Euro, Pound sedikit lega karena Dolar melemah... untuk saat ini

Indeks Dolar AS melemah menuju 97.75 pada saat laporan ini dituliskan, sehingga berbagai mata uang G10 bisa sedikit bernapas lega. Dolar dapat semakin melemah apabila PMI Manufaktur AS untuk bulan Mei yang akan dirilis Senin ini tidak berhasil mencapai ekspektasi pasar, karena isyarat ekonomi AS yang lebih lemah akan memperkuat kekhawatiran umum mengenai perlambatan ekonomi global di tahun 2019.

Walaupun baru saja menguat terhadap Dolar, Euro akan menghadapi tekanan negatif baru jika rilis data ekonomi pekan ini mengecewakan. Ini akan membuat Bank Sentral Eropa mempertahankan pandangan pesimis pada rapat kebijakan 6 Juni. Prospek Euro akan semakin suram apabila ketegangan antara AS-Tiongkok semakin menjadi dan memengaruhi permintaan ekonomi di Eropa. sedangkan perselisihan fiskal Italia dengan administrasi Uni Eropa mengancam mengikis sentimen investor di Zona Euro.

Peluang Euroskeptik kuasai 10 Downing Street dapat memperlemah Pound 

Investor Pound akan memantau perburuan Perdana Menteri Inggris baru, karena Theresa May bersiap untuk lengser dari posisinya sebagai PM Inggris pekan ini. 
Walaupun perubahan kepemimpinan diperkirakan tidak akan selesai sebelum akhir Juli, Pound tetap dapat bereaksi terhadap pergulatan politik antara 13 kandidat Perdana Menteri, di saat kekhawatiran mengenai Brexit tanpa kesepakatan memberi bayang-bayang gelap dalam transisi kepemimpinan ini.

Pound dapat semakin terperosok setelah turun lebih dari 3% terhadap Dolar bulan lalu ke level terendah sejak Januari apabila muncul kekhawatiran bahwa kandidat Euroskeptik naik tahta sebagai Perdana Menteri Inggris berikutnya.  

Untuk informasi selengkapnya, kunjungi: FXTM                     
 

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06/06/2019

Language of the Week: Hebrew, the Revived Language of the Ibri

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Many people think that we linguists speak lots of languages. While this is not usually true, it is a fact that we are curious about all of them - that is certainly my case.

I took up Hebrew a while ago when I was a student at the University of Barcelona. This was my fisrt contact with a Semitic language, and I can say I really enjoyed it. My instructor, professor Jaime Vándor, who repretably passed away in 2014, fled from the Nazis in 1939 and seeked refuge in Hungary. In 1947, he was reunited with his father in Barcelona, together with his brother and their mother.

Hebrew, a West Semitic language, is the only living Canaanite language left. The name Ibri, from which the word Hebrew derives, was one of the name of the Israelite people. The script is derived from Paleo-Hebrew, the writing system used by Israelites in the historic kingdoms of Israel and Judah in the 10th century BCE, and the script as we know it today was already used in the 5th century BC. Hebrew is the only successful example of a revived dead language. By 200-400 AD is was almost extint, replaced by Aramaic and Greek, both lingua franca at that time, but it survived into the Middle Ages in Jewish liturgy, rabbinic literature, Jewish commerce and poetry. In the 19th century it was revived as a spoken and literary language. 

The responsible for the revival of Hebrew was Eliezer Ben-Yehuda (1858-1922). Born in Belarus, his first language was Russian, so his Hebrew was highly influenced by this language in grammar, lexicon, and style. This special circumstance was reflected in his work on the revival of Hebrew, which now has a "Slavic flavor", like professor Vandor used to say. 

Today, Hebrew is spoken by around 9 million people, 5 of which are native speakers, and it is the oficial language of Israel.

Photo below: Eliezer Ben-Yehuda in his desk in Jerusalem, 1912.

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30/05/2019

Euro hampir tak bereaksi pada hasil pemilu Parlementer Eropa

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By Jameel Ahmad @Jameel_FXTM, Chief of Market Analysis with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Oleh Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy & Market Research FXTM 
Euro membuka pekan trading baru sedikit lebih kuat terhadap Dolar setelah hasil awal pemilu Parlementer Eropa, mengisyaratkan bahwa mainstream telah berhasil mengatasi hasil yang dikhawatirkan yaitu gelombang populis di Uni Eropa. Hasil sementara menunjukkan bahwa dukungan terhadap partai populis dan Euroskeptik menurun, menyiratkan bahwa momentum untuk anti-establishment relatif terbatas setidaknya untuk saat ini. Ini berarti Eurodollar seharusnya mendapatkan dukungan dari harapan keberlanjutan kebijakan di Eropa. 

Hasil pemilu Parlementer Eropa tidak menyampaikan bahwa politik Eropa akan mengalami kejutan jangka pendek, menyoroti bahwa arah Euro di jangka yang lebih panjang akan ditentukan oleh kekuatan global seperti prospek dagang AS-Tiongkok.

Kunjungan Presiden Trump ke Jepang tidak memperingatkan ketegangan dagang AS-Jepang 

Presiden Amerika Serikat Donald Trump melanjutkan kunjungan empat hari ke Jepang. Di saat yang sama, investor global terus bertanya-tanya mengenai prospek dagang global ke depannya. 

Kunjungan Trump ini tentu dicermati untuk mencari pertanda mengenai prospek dagang global di masa mendatang, namun pertemuan antara Presiden Amerika Serikat dan Perdana Menteri Jepang Shinzo Abe tidak mengisyaratkan bahwa akan ada perubahan mendadak mengenai keadaan dagang AS-Jepang yang dikhawatirkan pasar. 

Tiongkok peringatkan untuk tidak menjual Yuan!

Mata uang offshore Yuan Tiongkok sedikit menguat ke bawah level 6.90 untuk pertama kalinya sejak 15 Mei setelah pemimpin otoritas perbankan dan asuransi Tiongkok memperingatkan bahwa mereka yang mengambil posisi short Yuan akan "menderita kerugian besar".  Pernyataan ini telah dicerna sebagai peringatan bagi investor bahwa bahkan setelah perang tarif bulan ini, Tiongkok tidak mengubah pandangannya untuk mengizinkan Yuan offshore melemah guna mendukung tarif lebih besar.

Tujuh tetap menjadi angka keramat bagi USDCNH dan komentar dari pemimpin otoritas perbankan dan asuransi Tiongkok memberi tahu kita bahwa pemerintah Tiongkok tak akan ragu untuk mengintervensi pasar FX apabila dianggap diperlukan. 

Ini bukan hanya dipandang positif bagi Yuan, namun diperkirakan untuk menolong mata uang di seluruh Asia yang harus menghadapi risiko negatif tak terduga bulan ini karena tekanan terhadap Yuan. Peringatan dari Tiongkok ini memberi momentum positif bagi Ringgit Malaysia, Rupiah Indonesia, Dolar Singapura, dan tentu saja Yuan Tiongkok.

Presiden Afrika Selatan Ramaphosa janjikan "era baru" saat pelantikan  

Bukan hanya pemilu Parlementer Eropa dan kunjungan Presiden Amerika Serikat ke Jepang yang menjadi sorotan peristiwa politik di akhir pekan. Cyril Ramaphosa menyatakan tekadnya untuk membawa "harapan dan pembaruan" ke Afrika Selatan dalam pidato pelantikannya sebagai Presiden Afrika Selatan.  

Sejak Presiden Ramaphosa menjadi pimpinan Afrika Selatan hampir satu tahun lalu menggantikan Jacob Zuma, ia telah disoroti untuk memperbaiki ekonomi Afrika Selatan yang terpuruk selama bertahun-tahun, dan terus tertinggal dibandingkan pasar berkembang lain dalam satu dekade terakhir.    
 

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21/05/2019

The World’s Most Efficient Languages

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Via The Atlantic.com

By John McWhorter

How much do you really need to say to put a sentence together?

Just as fish presumably don’t know they’re wet, many English speakers don’t know that the way their language works is just one of endless ways it could have come out. It’s easy to think that what one’s native language puts words to, and how, reflects the fundamentals of reality.

But languages are strikingly different in the level of detail they require a speaker to provide in order to put a sentence together. In English, for example, here’s a simple sentence that comes to my mind for rather specific reasons related to having small children: “The father said ‘Come here!’” This statement specifies that there is a father, that he conducted the action of speaking in the past, and that he indicated the child should approach him at the location “here.” What else would a language need to do?

Well, for a German speaker, more. In “Der Vater sagte ‘Komm her!’”, although it just seems like a variation on the English sentence, more is happening. “Der,” the word for “the,” is a choice among other possibilities: It’s the one used for masculine nouns only. If the sentence were about a mother, it would have to use the feminine die, or if about a girl, the neuter das (for reasons unnecessary to broach here!). The word for “said,” sagte, is marked with a suffix for the third-person singular; if it were “you said,” then it would be sagtest—in English, those forms don’t vary in the past tense. Then, her for “here” means “to here”: In German one must become what feels to an English speaker rather Shakespearean and say “hither” when that’s what is meant. “Here” in the sense of just sitting “here” is a different word, hier.

This German sentence, then, requires you to pay more attention to the genders of people and things, to whether it’s me, you, her, him, us, y’all, or them driving the action. It also requires specifying not just where someone is but whether that person is moving closer or farther away. German is, overall, busier than English, and yet Germans feel their way of putting things is as normal as English speakers feel their way is.

Other languages occupy still other places on the linguistic axis of “busyness,” from prolix to laconic, and it’s surprising what a language can do without. In Mandarin Chinese, a way of saying “The father said ‘Come here!’” is “Fùqīn shuō ‘Guò lái zhè lǐ!’” Just as in English, there is no marker for the father’s gender, nor does the form of the word shuō for “said” indicate whether the speaker is me, you, or him. The word for “here,” zhè lǐ, can mean either “right here” or “to here,” just like in English. But Mandarin is even more telegraphic. There is no definite article like “the.” The word for “said” lacks not only a suffix for person, but is also not marked for tense; it just means “say.” It is assumed that context will indicate that this event happened in the past. Much of learning Mandarin involves getting a sense of how much one can not say in an acceptable sentence.

Moreover, anyone who has sampled Chinese, or Persian, or Finnish, knows that a language can get along just fine with the same word for “he” and “she.”* And whereas Mandarin can mark tense but often doesn’t, in the Maybrat language of New Guinea, there’s pretty much no way to mark it at all—context takes care of it and no one bats an eye.
If there were a prize for the busiest language, then a language like Kabardian, also known as Circassian and spoken in the Caucasus, would win. In the simple sentence “The men saw me,” the word for “saw” is sǝq’ayǝƛaaɣwǝaɣhaś (pronounced roughly “suck-a-LAGH-a-HESH”). This seems like a majestic monster of a word, and yet despite its air of “supercalifragilisticexpealidocious,” the word for “saw” is every bit as ordinary for Karbadian-speakers as English-speakers’ “saw” is for them. It’s just that Karbadian-speakers have to pack so much more into their version. In sǝq’ayǝƛaaɣwǝaɣhaś, other than the part meaning “see,” there is a bit that reiterates that it’s me who was seen, even though the sentence would include a separate word for “me” elsewhere. Then there are other bits that show that the seeing was most significant to “me” rather than to the men or anyone else; that the seeing was done by more than one person (despite the sentence spelling out elsewhere that it was plural “men” who did the seeing); that this event did not happen in the present; that on top of this, the event happened specifically in the past rather than the future; and finally a bit indicating that the speaker really means what he’s saying.

The prize for most economical language could go to certain colloquial dialects of Indonesian that are rarely written but represent the daily reality of Indonesian in millions of mouths. For example, in the Riau dialect spoken in Sumatra, ayam means chicken and makan means eat, but “Ayam makan” doesn’t mean only “The chicken is eating.” Depending on context, “Ayam makan” can mean the “chickens are eating,” “a chicken is eating,” “the chicken is eating,” “the chicken will be eating,” “the chicken eats,” “the chicken has eaten,” “someone is eating the chicken,” “someone is eating for the chicken,” “someone is eating with the chicken,” “the chicken that is eating,” “where the chicken is eating,” and “when the chicken is eating.” If chickens and eating are à propos, the assumption is that everybody in the conversation knows what’s what. Thus for a wide variety of situations the equivalent of “chicken eat” will do—and does.

So does the contrast between Riau Indonesian’s “chicken eat” and Kabardian’s “they saw me and it affected me, not now, and I really mean it” mean that each language gives its speakers a different way of looking at the world? It’s an intriguing idea, first formulated by anthropologist and linguist Edward Sapir and amateur linguist (and fire inspector!) Benjamin Whorf. If it were correct, an English-speaker would generally think about the past more than a Chinese-speaker would, while Germans would think more about movement than Americans or Brits.

Experiments have shown that this is often true to a faint, flickering degree a psychologist can detect in the artifice of experimental conditions. But does this mean a different way of experiencing life? Is a Kabardian shopkeeper in the Caucasus more exquisitely attuned to the nuances of experience than a Riau Indonesian-speaking fisherman in Sumatra? If that Kabardian shopkeeper’s jam-packed verbs mean that he vibrates in tune to the jots and tittles of life, then doesn’t one have to say that the Riau Indonesian speaker, whose grammar directs his attention to so few details, is something of a limp string on the guitar? We would run into similarly hopeless comparisons around the world. The Zulu speaker would be hypervigilant given the complexities of his language, the Samoan speaker inattendant given the less obsessively complicated nature of hers.

If thought and culture aren’t why some languages pile it on while others take it light, then what is the reason? Part of the answer is unsatisfying but powerful: chance. Time and repetition wear words out, and what wears away is often a nugget of meaning. This happens in some languages more than others. Think of the French song “Alouette, gentille alouette …” (“lark, nice lark”) in which one sings “ahh-loo-eh-tuh.” In running speech the word has long been pronounced just “ah-loo-ett” with no -uh at the end. That –uh in the song today is a leftover from the way the word actually was once pronounced normally, and it indicated the word’s feminine gender to the listener. Today, beyond marginal contexts like that song, only the final e in the spelling of alouette indicates its gender; hearing it in a sentence we’d have to rely on the definite article la alone to know that the word is feminine.
In a language where final sounds take the accent, such sounds tend to hold on longer because they are so loud and clear—you’re less likely to mumble it and people listening are more likely to hear it. In Hebrew, “Thank you very much,” is “Toda raba,” pronounced “toe-DAH rah-BAH.” The sounds at the end of the word mark gender in Hebrew, too, and they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon because they are enunciated with force.

When a language seems especially telegraphic, usually another factor has come into play: Enough adults learned it at a certain stage in its history that, given the difficulty of learning a new language after childhood, it became a kind of stripped-down “schoolroom” version of itself. Because all languages, are, to some extent, busier than they need to be, this streamlining leaves the language thoroughly complex and nuanced, just lighter on the bric-a-brac that so many languages pant under. Even today, Indonesian is a first language to only one in four of its speakers; the language has been used for many centuries as a lingua franca in a vast region, imposed on speakers of several hundred languages. This means that while other languages can be like overgrown lawns, Indonesian’s grammar has been regularly mowed, such that especially the colloquial forms are tidier. Lots of adult learning over long periods of time is also why, for example, the colloquial forms of Arabic like Egyptian and Moroccan are somewhat less elaborated than Modern Standard Arabic—they were imposed on new people as Islam spread after the seventh century.

In contrast, one cannot help suspecting that not too many adults have been tackling the likes of sǝq’ayǝƛaaɣwǝaɣhaś. Kabardian has been left to its own devices, and my, has it hoarded a lot of them. This is, as languages go, normal, even if Kabardian is rather extreme. By contrast, only a few languages have been taken up as vehicles of empire and imposed on millions of unsuspecting and underqualified adults. Long-dominant Mandarin, then, is less “busy” than Cantonese and Taiwanese, which have been imposed on fewer people. English came out the way it did because Vikings, who in the first millennium forged something of an empire of their own in northern and western Europe, imposed themselves on the Old English of the people they invaded and, as it were, mowed it. German, meanwhile, stayed “normal.”

Even if languages’ differences in busyness can’t be taken as windows on psychological alertness, the differences remain awesome. In a Native American language of California called Atsugewi (now extinct), if a tree was burned and we found the ashes in a creek afterward, we would have said that soot w’oqhputíc’ta into the creek. W’oqhputíc’ta is a conglomeration of bits that mean “it moved like dirt, in a falling fashion, into liquid, and for real.” In English, we would just say “flowed.”
 

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17/05/2019

무역갈등에 시장심리 위축

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By Lukman Otunuga @Lukman_FXTM, Research Analyst with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

이번 주는 글로벌 무역갈등에 따른 불확실성과 보복전으로 투자심리가 크게 흔들리는 모습입니다.  

목요일 오전 아시아 증시는 미중 무역갈등 관련 엇갈린 신호가 전해지는 가운데 혼조세를 보이고 있습니다. 다음달 G20 정상회담에서 미국과 중국이 만나 악수하는 모습이 현재의 갈등 고조 분위기를 완화시킬 것이라는 희망이 있는 한편, 미국 정부가 국가보안을 이유로 화웨이의 미국 시장 진출을 금지할 것이라는 소식도 전해지고 있습니다. 
무역갈등 관련하여 엇갈린 신호는 불확실성과 시장의 혼란만을 키우므로, 투자자들의 리스크 털어내기는 계속될 것으로 보입니다. 

시장 심리는 트럼프 대통령과 시진핑 주석이 만나는 6월말 G20 정상 회담까지 취약한 상태가 지속될 것으로 보입니다. 세계 최대 경제국 간에 타협점을 찾게 될까요? 아니면 갈등이 더 증폭될까요? 이는 누구도 확실히 답하기 어려운 문제입니다. 또한 지난 2주 동안의 극적 방향 전환 후 투자자가 불안해 하는 이유입니다. 

시진핑 주석과 트럼프 대통령의 회담이 어떤 결과를 낳던 간에 올해 하반기 시장심리에 지속적 영향을 주게 될 것입니다.

상승폭 유지가 어려운 유로

어제 트럼프 대통령이 자동차 관세를 6개월 연기할 수 있다는 보도에 유로 상승을 노리던 투자자에게 기회가 찾아왔습니다.

하지만 현재 유로는 달러대비 1.12 근방에서 거래되고 있어 상승폭은 제한적입니다. 유로존 및 독일 1분기 GDP 1차 예측치는 시장 전망치에 부합했지만, 유럽 성장 전망은 여전히 무역 갈등 등 외부 변수의 도전을 받을 것으로 예상됩니다. 

유럽중앙은행(ECB)이 신중한 기조를 채택하고 있고 성장 우려감이 존재하는 등 유로화 전망이 기본적으로 하방이므로 EURUSD는 추가 하락이 예상됩니다. 주봉 종가가 1.120 밑에서 마무리된다면 1.113 및 1.100까지 하락할 수 있습니다.


 
주목할 상품 - 금 

어제 미국 및 중국의 경제지표 부진으로 시장 분위기가 더 악화되자 안전자산이 환영받았습니다.

금은 여전히 무역 불확실성과 경제성장 둔화 우려감으로 선호도가 높은 상태이며 이점은 계속해서 금값에 반영되고 있습니다. 시장 불안감으로 안전자산으로의 자금 이동이 가속화되면 심리적 저항선인 $1300을 다시 테스트할 가능성이 있습니다. 

기술적인 면을 살펴보면 일봉 차트에서 금은 여전히 상승세를 보이고 있습니다. 주봉 종가가 $1300 위에서 마무리된다면 $1300 및 $1324까지 더 오를 수 있습니다. 당분간 안전자산으로의 자금이동을 막을만한 요인은 제한적이므로 금값 상승은 계속될 것으로 보입니다. 
 

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