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insight by wfx

Welcome to Wordwide FX's new enterprise!

Insight by WFX is a synthesis of our passion for languages and the financial markets. Here you will find technical and fundamental analyses from our clients, media partners and contributors in different languages, as well as discussions on languages and translation. And of course we will keep you updated on what is happening inside Wordwide FX Financial Translations. Hope you enjoy it! Greetings from the Wordwide FX team!

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23/05/2019

Language of the Week: Icelandic, Viking Speech Preserved

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

As a lover of Germanic languages and having had the chance to learn some German and Swedish, I've always been curious about Icelandic, the language of the North Atlandic island discovered and populated in the 7th century by Norsemen from different points of Scandinavia, most notably Flóki Vilgerðarson, one of the main characters of the TV show Vikings.  

With roughly 560.000 native speakers, Icelandinc (islenska) stands out among Scandinavian languages for being the closest to Old Norse, the speech of the Vikings. True, also Danish, Faroese, Norwegian, and Swedish, derive from Old Norse, but due to geogrgaphical isolation Icelandic has retained lots of features of their ancestor's speech, to the extent that Old Norse is also known among the linguistics community as "Old Icelandic" (even though, technically, Old Icelandic should be synonym with Old West Norse). The conservation of the language means that modern Icelanders are able to read the Eddas, the Sagas, and other classic Old Norse literary works created in the Viking period between the 10th and the 13th centuries. 

It is funny to think that modern Icelandic could be mutually intelligible with a language spoken so many centuries ago (at least partially, because although the written language remains quite close, the pronunciation is not the same), but it is no longer so with the other contemporary Scandinavian languages, not even with it's closest relative, Faroese.

The main difference between Icelandic and the other Scandinavian languages is that Icelandic keeps many grammatical features of other ancient Germanic languages, most notably the inflection system. While Norwegian, Danish, and Swedish have lost their inflections, Icelandic retains four cases: nominative, accusative, dative, and genitice. Also, like Old English (or modern German), nouns have 3 grammatical genders: masculine, feminine, and neuter. 

Icelandic has also retained with old letters that used to be used to write Old English and Old Norse, but that the other Germanic languages have dropped: Þ, þ (þorn, modern English "thorn") and Ð, ð (, anglicised as "eth" or "edh"), representing the voiceless and voiced "th" sounds (as in English thin and this), respectively. 

The good health of the Icelandic language is in charge of Ari Páll Krinstinsson, head of the Ari Magnússon institute for Icelandic studies (in the photo, below). Some people fear that, due to the low demography, Icelandic will die out soon. Jón Gnarr, the comedian who became the mayor of Rejkjavik, was quoted on The WOold in Words in 2015: "I think Icelandic is not going to last. Probably in this century we will adopt English as our language. I think it's unavoidable". Ari Magnússon also has the same fears: "English is everywhere, from the moment we wake up untill we die". The language is also closely linked to the feeling of Iceland as a nation: "If we lost the Icelandic language there will be no Icelandic nation", said poet Krinstinsson, a feelilng shared by speakers of many minority languages.  

 

 

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21/05/2019

The World’s Most Efficient Languages

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Via The Atlantic.com

By John McWhorter

How much do you really need to say to put a sentence together?

Just as fish presumably don’t know they’re wet, many English speakers don’t know that the way their language works is just one of endless ways it could have come out. It’s easy to think that what one’s native language puts words to, and how, reflects the fundamentals of reality.

But languages are strikingly different in the level of detail they require a speaker to provide in order to put a sentence together. In English, for example, here’s a simple sentence that comes to my mind for rather specific reasons related to having small children: “The father said ‘Come here!’” This statement specifies that there is a father, that he conducted the action of speaking in the past, and that he indicated the child should approach him at the location “here.” What else would a language need to do?

Well, for a German speaker, more. In “Der Vater sagte ‘Komm her!’”, although it just seems like a variation on the English sentence, more is happening. “Der,” the word for “the,” is a choice among other possibilities: It’s the one used for masculine nouns only. If the sentence were about a mother, it would have to use the feminine die, or if about a girl, the neuter das (for reasons unnecessary to broach here!). The word for “said,” sagte, is marked with a suffix for the third-person singular; if it were “you said,” then it would be sagtest—in English, those forms don’t vary in the past tense. Then, her for “here” means “to here”: In German one must become what feels to an English speaker rather Shakespearean and say “hither” when that’s what is meant. “Here” in the sense of just sitting “here” is a different word, hier.

This German sentence, then, requires you to pay more attention to the genders of people and things, to whether it’s me, you, her, him, us, y’all, or them driving the action. It also requires specifying not just where someone is but whether that person is moving closer or farther away. German is, overall, busier than English, and yet Germans feel their way of putting things is as normal as English speakers feel their way is.

Other languages occupy still other places on the linguistic axis of “busyness,” from prolix to laconic, and it’s surprising what a language can do without. In Mandarin Chinese, a way of saying “The father said ‘Come here!’” is “Fùqīn shuō ‘Guò lái zhè lǐ!’” Just as in English, there is no marker for the father’s gender, nor does the form of the word shuō for “said” indicate whether the speaker is me, you, or him. The word for “here,” zhè lǐ, can mean either “right here” or “to here,” just like in English. But Mandarin is even more telegraphic. There is no definite article like “the.” The word for “said” lacks not only a suffix for person, but is also not marked for tense; it just means “say.” It is assumed that context will indicate that this event happened in the past. Much of learning Mandarin involves getting a sense of how much one can not say in an acceptable sentence.

Moreover, anyone who has sampled Chinese, or Persian, or Finnish, knows that a language can get along just fine with the same word for “he” and “she.”* And whereas Mandarin can mark tense but often doesn’t, in the Maybrat language of New Guinea, there’s pretty much no way to mark it at all—context takes care of it and no one bats an eye.
If there were a prize for the busiest language, then a language like Kabardian, also known as Circassian and spoken in the Caucasus, would win. In the simple sentence “The men saw me,” the word for “saw” is sǝq’ayǝƛaaɣwǝaɣhaś (pronounced roughly “suck-a-LAGH-a-HESH”). This seems like a majestic monster of a word, and yet despite its air of “supercalifragilisticexpealidocious,” the word for “saw” is every bit as ordinary for Karbadian-speakers as English-speakers’ “saw” is for them. It’s just that Karbadian-speakers have to pack so much more into their version. In sǝq’ayǝƛaaɣwǝaɣhaś, other than the part meaning “see,” there is a bit that reiterates that it’s me who was seen, even though the sentence would include a separate word for “me” elsewhere. Then there are other bits that show that the seeing was most significant to “me” rather than to the men or anyone else; that the seeing was done by more than one person (despite the sentence spelling out elsewhere that it was plural “men” who did the seeing); that this event did not happen in the present; that on top of this, the event happened specifically in the past rather than the future; and finally a bit indicating that the speaker really means what he’s saying.

The prize for most economical language could go to certain colloquial dialects of Indonesian that are rarely written but represent the daily reality of Indonesian in millions of mouths. For example, in the Riau dialect spoken in Sumatra, ayam means chicken and makan means eat, but “Ayam makan” doesn’t mean only “The chicken is eating.” Depending on context, “Ayam makan” can mean the “chickens are eating,” “a chicken is eating,” “the chicken is eating,” “the chicken will be eating,” “the chicken eats,” “the chicken has eaten,” “someone is eating the chicken,” “someone is eating for the chicken,” “someone is eating with the chicken,” “the chicken that is eating,” “where the chicken is eating,” and “when the chicken is eating.” If chickens and eating are à propos, the assumption is that everybody in the conversation knows what’s what. Thus for a wide variety of situations the equivalent of “chicken eat” will do—and does.

So does the contrast between Riau Indonesian’s “chicken eat” and Kabardian’s “they saw me and it affected me, not now, and I really mean it” mean that each language gives its speakers a different way of looking at the world? It’s an intriguing idea, first formulated by anthropologist and linguist Edward Sapir and amateur linguist (and fire inspector!) Benjamin Whorf. If it were correct, an English-speaker would generally think about the past more than a Chinese-speaker would, while Germans would think more about movement than Americans or Brits.

Experiments have shown that this is often true to a faint, flickering degree a psychologist can detect in the artifice of experimental conditions. But does this mean a different way of experiencing life? Is a Kabardian shopkeeper in the Caucasus more exquisitely attuned to the nuances of experience than a Riau Indonesian-speaking fisherman in Sumatra? If that Kabardian shopkeeper’s jam-packed verbs mean that he vibrates in tune to the jots and tittles of life, then doesn’t one have to say that the Riau Indonesian speaker, whose grammar directs his attention to so few details, is something of a limp string on the guitar? We would run into similarly hopeless comparisons around the world. The Zulu speaker would be hypervigilant given the complexities of his language, the Samoan speaker inattendant given the less obsessively complicated nature of hers.

If thought and culture aren’t why some languages pile it on while others take it light, then what is the reason? Part of the answer is unsatisfying but powerful: chance. Time and repetition wear words out, and what wears away is often a nugget of meaning. This happens in some languages more than others. Think of the French song “Alouette, gentille alouette …” (“lark, nice lark”) in which one sings “ahh-loo-eh-tuh.” In running speech the word has long been pronounced just “ah-loo-ett” with no -uh at the end. That –uh in the song today is a leftover from the way the word actually was once pronounced normally, and it indicated the word’s feminine gender to the listener. Today, beyond marginal contexts like that song, only the final e in the spelling of alouette indicates its gender; hearing it in a sentence we’d have to rely on the definite article la alone to know that the word is feminine.
In a language where final sounds take the accent, such sounds tend to hold on longer because they are so loud and clear—you’re less likely to mumble it and people listening are more likely to hear it. In Hebrew, “Thank you very much,” is “Toda raba,” pronounced “toe-DAH rah-BAH.” The sounds at the end of the word mark gender in Hebrew, too, and they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon because they are enunciated with force.

When a language seems especially telegraphic, usually another factor has come into play: Enough adults learned it at a certain stage in its history that, given the difficulty of learning a new language after childhood, it became a kind of stripped-down “schoolroom” version of itself. Because all languages, are, to some extent, busier than they need to be, this streamlining leaves the language thoroughly complex and nuanced, just lighter on the bric-a-brac that so many languages pant under. Even today, Indonesian is a first language to only one in four of its speakers; the language has been used for many centuries as a lingua franca in a vast region, imposed on speakers of several hundred languages. This means that while other languages can be like overgrown lawns, Indonesian’s grammar has been regularly mowed, such that especially the colloquial forms are tidier. Lots of adult learning over long periods of time is also why, for example, the colloquial forms of Arabic like Egyptian and Moroccan are somewhat less elaborated than Modern Standard Arabic—they were imposed on new people as Islam spread after the seventh century.

In contrast, one cannot help suspecting that not too many adults have been tackling the likes of sǝq’ayǝƛaaɣwǝaɣhaś. Kabardian has been left to its own devices, and my, has it hoarded a lot of them. This is, as languages go, normal, even if Kabardian is rather extreme. By contrast, only a few languages have been taken up as vehicles of empire and imposed on millions of unsuspecting and underqualified adults. Long-dominant Mandarin, then, is less “busy” than Cantonese and Taiwanese, which have been imposed on fewer people. English came out the way it did because Vikings, who in the first millennium forged something of an empire of their own in northern and western Europe, imposed themselves on the Old English of the people they invaded and, as it were, mowed it. German, meanwhile, stayed “normal.”

Even if languages’ differences in busyness can’t be taken as windows on psychological alertness, the differences remain awesome. In a Native American language of California called Atsugewi (now extinct), if a tree was burned and we found the ashes in a creek afterward, we would have said that soot w’oqhputíc’ta into the creek. W’oqhputíc’ta is a conglomeration of bits that mean “it moved like dirt, in a falling fashion, into liquid, and for real.” In English, we would just say “flowed.”
 

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17/05/2019

무역갈등에 시장심리 위축

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By Lukman Otunuga @Lukman_FXTM, Research Analyst with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

이번 주는 글로벌 무역갈등에 따른 불확실성과 보복전으로 투자심리가 크게 흔들리는 모습입니다.  

목요일 오전 아시아 증시는 미중 무역갈등 관련 엇갈린 신호가 전해지는 가운데 혼조세를 보이고 있습니다. 다음달 G20 정상회담에서 미국과 중국이 만나 악수하는 모습이 현재의 갈등 고조 분위기를 완화시킬 것이라는 희망이 있는 한편, 미국 정부가 국가보안을 이유로 화웨이의 미국 시장 진출을 금지할 것이라는 소식도 전해지고 있습니다. 
무역갈등 관련하여 엇갈린 신호는 불확실성과 시장의 혼란만을 키우므로, 투자자들의 리스크 털어내기는 계속될 것으로 보입니다. 

시장 심리는 트럼프 대통령과 시진핑 주석이 만나는 6월말 G20 정상 회담까지 취약한 상태가 지속될 것으로 보입니다. 세계 최대 경제국 간에 타협점을 찾게 될까요? 아니면 갈등이 더 증폭될까요? 이는 누구도 확실히 답하기 어려운 문제입니다. 또한 지난 2주 동안의 극적 방향 전환 후 투자자가 불안해 하는 이유입니다. 

시진핑 주석과 트럼프 대통령의 회담이 어떤 결과를 낳던 간에 올해 하반기 시장심리에 지속적 영향을 주게 될 것입니다.

상승폭 유지가 어려운 유로

어제 트럼프 대통령이 자동차 관세를 6개월 연기할 수 있다는 보도에 유로 상승을 노리던 투자자에게 기회가 찾아왔습니다.

하지만 현재 유로는 달러대비 1.12 근방에서 거래되고 있어 상승폭은 제한적입니다. 유로존 및 독일 1분기 GDP 1차 예측치는 시장 전망치에 부합했지만, 유럽 성장 전망은 여전히 무역 갈등 등 외부 변수의 도전을 받을 것으로 예상됩니다. 

유럽중앙은행(ECB)이 신중한 기조를 채택하고 있고 성장 우려감이 존재하는 등 유로화 전망이 기본적으로 하방이므로 EURUSD는 추가 하락이 예상됩니다. 주봉 종가가 1.120 밑에서 마무리된다면 1.113 및 1.100까지 하락할 수 있습니다.


 
주목할 상품 - 금 

어제 미국 및 중국의 경제지표 부진으로 시장 분위기가 더 악화되자 안전자산이 환영받았습니다.

금은 여전히 무역 불확실성과 경제성장 둔화 우려감으로 선호도가 높은 상태이며 이점은 계속해서 금값에 반영되고 있습니다. 시장 불안감으로 안전자산으로의 자금 이동이 가속화되면 심리적 저항선인 $1300을 다시 테스트할 가능성이 있습니다. 

기술적인 면을 살펴보면 일봉 차트에서 금은 여전히 상승세를 보이고 있습니다. 주봉 종가가 $1300 위에서 마무리된다면 $1300 및 $1324까지 더 오를 수 있습니다. 당분간 안전자산으로의 자금이동을 막을만한 요인은 제한적이므로 금값 상승은 계속될 것으로 보입니다. 
 

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15/05/2019

จีนตอบโต้ทางการค้า มีการลงทุนโดยหลีกเลี่ยงความเสี่ยงเนื่องจากนักลงทุนระวังตัว

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By Lukman Otunuga @Lukman_FXTM, Research Analyst with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

จีนตอบโต้ทางการค้า มีการลงทุนโดยหลีกเลี่ยงความเสี่ยงเนื่องจากนักลงทุนระวังตัว

คำเตือนและความกังวลที่เพิ่มขึ้นบ่งบอกถึงบรรยากาศในตลาดเงิน ขณะที่นักลงทุนรัดเข็มขัดและเตรียมพร้อมสำหรับการพลิกผันอันน่าตกใจซึ่งเป็นปฏิกิริยาจากความตึงเครียดที่มากขึ้นระหว่างสองประเทศยักษ์ใหญ่ของโลก ทำให้เกิดผลกระทบเชิงลบต่อความรู้สึกทั่วโลก  

เมื่อวันจันทร์ รัฐบาลปักกิ่งตอบโต้การขึ้นภาษีของ Trump โดยเปิดเผยว่าจะขึ้นภาษีเป็น 25% สำหรับสินค้าสหรัฐฯ มูลค่า $60 พันล้าน หน่วยงานผู้แทนการค้าสหรัฐฯ ประกาศว่ารายการสินค้าจีนมูลค่า $300 พันล้านจะถูกเก็บภาษี 25% หลังรัฐบาลปักกิ่งออกประกาศ ส่งผลให้ความกลัวว่าจะเกิดสงครามการค้ายกระดับเพิ่มขึ้นอย่างที่เราไม่เคยเห็นมาก่อน 

คาดว่าความกลัวว่าจะเกิดสงครามการค้ายังคงเป็นประเด็นหลักที่กระทบต่อความเชื่อมั่นของนักลงทุน การหมดความสนใจลงทุนในสินทรัพย์ที่มีความเสี่ยงสะท้อนให้เห็นทั่วตลาดเอเชียในเช้าวันนี้โดยดัชนีหุ้นเป็นสีแดงขณะที่เขียนรายงาน หุ้นยุโรปยากที่จะยืนบวกเนื่องจากสถานการณ์ในตลาดเอเชียส่งผลให้นักลงทุนหันไปหาสินทรัพย์ที่ปลอดภัย เงินเยนกลับมาบวกจากเดิมเล็กน้อยแต่ยังคงเป็นตัวเลือกสินทรัพย์ที่ได้รับความนิยมสำหรับผู้เทรดค่าเงิน  

Trump กล่าวว่าเขาจะไปพบกับ Xi Jinping จากจีน…แต่ตลาดจะรับฟังหรือไม่

ประธานาธิบดี Donald Trump กล่าวว่าเขาจะไปพบกับประธานาธิบดี Xi Jinping ในงานประชุมของกลุ่ม G20 ช่วงปลายมิถุนายน อย่างไรก็ตาม เมื่อพิจารณาถึงการพลิกผันและความผิดหวังเกี่ยวกับการหารือเรื่องการเทรดหลายๆ ครั้ง จึงอาจไม่มีใครใส่ใจคำพูดดังกล่าว 

ตลาดน่าจะไม่ค่อยเชื่อคำพูดของ Trump เมื่อคำนึงถึงหลายสถานการณ์ในอดีตซึ่งไม่ได้คลี่คลายความตึงเครียดทางการค้าระหว่างสหรัฐฯ กับจีน


ทองคำยังคงเป็นดาวรุ่ง 

ทองคำเป็นที่ต้องการอย่างไม่น่าเชื่อในช่วงต้นสัปดาห์โดยราคาวิ่งขึ้นไปหาแนวต้านทางจิตวิทยาที่ $1300 เนื่องจากการลงทุนโดยหลีกเลี่ยงความเสี่ยงทำให้นักลงทุนหันไปหาสินทรัพย์ปลอดภัย ความต้องการโลหะมีค่าชนิดนี้ยังคงแข็งแกร่งท่ามกลางความกังวลของตลาดเกี่ยวกับความตึงเครียดทางการค้าที่ร้อนแรง ซึ่งส่งผลลบต่อการเติบโตของเศรษฐกิจโลก 

ตามภาพทางเทคนิคด้านล่าง ทองคำกำลังเปลี่ยนเป็นภาวะกระทิงในกราฟรายวันเนื่องจากราคาทะลุเหนือจุดต่ำสุดที่สูงขึ้นกว่าเดิมที่ $1290 การทะลุขึ้นอย่างแข็งแกร่งและการปิดรายวันเหนือ $1300 อาจสนับสนุนให้เกิดการปรับตัวขึ้นไปที่ $1310 และ $1324 ตามลำดับ

 
จุดสนใจในกลุ่มสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ – น้ำมัน WTI 

ภาวะกระทิงของน้ำมันดูหมดแรงและพร้อมที่จะหยุดลงตั้งแต่เนิ่นๆ ในไตรมาสนี้ และยังคงแสดงให้เห็นอย่างต่อเนื่องในความเคลื่อนไหวของราคา ฟิวเจอร์สน้ำมันดิบ Brent ร่วงลงประมาณ 6 เปอร์เซ็นต์จากจุดสูงสุดตั้งแต่ต้นปีถึงปัจจุบันที่ $74.75/bbl ในวันที่ 25 เมษายน ส่วนปัจจุบัน ฟิวเจอร์สยังคงไม่ไปไหนอยู่ที่ระดับประมาณ $70/bbl เป็นส่วนใหญ่

ภาวะกระทิงกำลังพยายามหาแรงสนับสนุนจากความเสี่ยงทางภูมิศาสตร์การเมืองในตะวันออกกลาง การหยุดชะงักของอุปทานในไนจีเรีย เวเนซุเอลาและ OPEC ที่ทำให้เกิดการลดอุปทานการผลิต ความไม่แน่นอนในการพัฒนาทางการค้าของสหรัฐ-จีนที่กำลังเพิ่มขึ้นก่อให้เกิดปัญหาต่ออุปสงค์น้ำมันทั่วโลกในอนาคตและยังคงถ่วงราคาน้ำมันต่อไป

ทุกสายตาจะรอดูการประชุมคณะกรรมการ OPEC+ ที่เมืองเจดดาห์ในสัปดาห์นี้ ซึ่งนักลงทุนจะได้วิเคราะห์คำใบ้ใหม่ๆ เกี่ยวกับโครงการลดกำลังการผลิตของ OPEC+ ในอนาคต OPEC จะเห็นชอบให้ลดหรือล้มเลิกการลดกำลังการผลิตในเดือนมิถุนายนหรือไม่ นี่คือคำถามที่นักลงทุนหลายๆ คนมี
 

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14/05/2019

Data perdagangan eksternal, keputusan kebijakan moneter Indonesia jadi sorotan di tengah rintangan global

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By Han Tai @HanTai, Market Analyst with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Indonesia akan merilis data perdagangan eksternal bulan April pada hari Rabu. Ekspor dan impor mencatat penurunan tahunan pada tiga bulan pertama 2019. Tren turun yang berlanjut dari data ini akan menyoroti rintangan global yang memengaruhi ekonomi Indonesia. Meninjau kenaikan tarif AS yang diberlakukan terhadap barang Tiongkok pada 10 Mei dan berpotensi terus ditingkatkan, hambatan dagang yang semakin besar akan berdampak negatif pada ekonomi Asia, di tengah perlambatan pertumbuhan global secara umum.

Di saat berbagai risiko eksternal begitu besar, keputusan Bank Indonesia pekan ini mungkin selaras dengan tren regional, mengingat bank sentral Filipina, Malaysia, dan Selandia Baru semuanya mengurangi suku bunga acuan pekan lalu. Kita belum mengetahui apakah BI akan menghapuskan sebagian dari kenaikan 175 bps yang diterapkan tahun lalu guna membantu Rupiah yang telah melemah 1.2 persen terhadap Dolar di sepanjang bulan Mei.

Pasar menunggu perkembangan dagang AS-Tiongkok berikutnya

Ketegangan dagang AS-Tiongkok diperkirakan akan menjadi tajuk utama pekan ini. Pasar Asia membuka hari Senin dengan menjauhi risiko. Kecuali Yen Jepang, sebagian besar mata uang Asia telah melemah terhadap Dolar AS. Shanghai Composite Index dibuka 1.5 persen lebih rendah sebelum pulih dari penurunan pada saat laporan ini dituliskan. Sebagian besar saham Asia juga melemah di Senin pagi. Sementara itu, futures S&P 500 turun satu persen, berpotensi menambah kesulitan bagi saham AS yang telah mengalami penurunan terbesar mingguan di 2019 pada pekan lalu.

Di akhir pekan, Presiden AS Donald Trump memberi sinyal yang bervariasi mengenai pendekatannya terhadap negosiasi dagang dengan Tiongkok. Di satu sisi, ia membuat cuitan bahwa negosiasi akan dilanjutkan secara "bersahabat", dan bahwa "tidak perlu tergesa-gesa sama sekali". Sebaliknya, Trump juga mengatakan bahwa ia senang "memungut tarif yang besar" dan menyuruh Tiongkok untuk "bertindak sekarang". Cuitan ini dibuat di tengah laporan bahwa negosiator dagang AS memberi waktu satu bulan kepada pihak Tiongkok untuk mencapai kesepakatan atau mengancam akan memberlakukan tarif AS terhadap semua impor Tiongkok.

Skenario dasar pasar tidak kokoh?

Mengingat Trump begitu sulit diprediksi, upaya untuk memprediksi hasil akhir negosiasi dagang AS-Tiongkok berisiko melibatkan skenario dasar yang tidak kokoh sama sekali. Pada saat laporan ini dituliskan, pasar masih menunggu detail mengenai "langkah tanggapan" Tiongkok" terhadap tarif AS yang lebih tinggi yang diberlakukan pada $200 miliar barang Tiongkok pada 10 Mei. Perlu diingat bahwa Presiden Trump juga menyampaikan kemungkinan tarif 25 persen terhadap $325 miliar lagi barang Tiongkok yang saat ini belum dikenakan tarif. Walaupun tampaknya sebagian peserta pasar masih menunggu kesepakatan dagang resmi antara AS-Tiongkok, aksi jual aset berisiko pekan lalu dapat berarti pasar bersiap menghadapi volatilitas lebih tinggi karena keadaan dagang di masa mendatang. 

Potensi deviasi arah ekonomi AS-Tiongkok dapat tingkatkan ketidakpastian pasar

Selain komentar dari kedua pemerintah mengenai perdagangan, investor juga akan memantau indikator ekonomi penting dari AS dan Tiongkok yang akan diumumkan pekan ini. Data produksi industri dan penjualan ritel dari AS dan Tiongkok akan dirilis hari Rabu, di saat ketegangan antara kedua ekonomi terbesar dunia ini semakin panas. Momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi AS diprediksi tetap stabil, sedangkan Tiongkok telah menampilkan sinyal semakin stabil dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Perbedaan signifikan dari arah pertumbuhan tersebut dapat menambah ketidakpastian di pasar.

Safe haven menguat karena Trump menyuruh Tiongkok untuk "bertindak sekarang"

Trump memberi tahu Tiongkok untuk "bertindak sekarang", tapi investor tidak perlu menunggu perintah dari Presiden AS untuk menghindari risiko. Emas kini berada di pertengahan $1280 dan Yen Jepang menguat, USDJPY semakin menurun di bawah 110. Sementara itu, Indeks Dolar (DXY) stabil di kisaran 97.3 saat ini, setelah mengalami penurunan selama dua pekan berturut-turut.

Kurangnya kemajuan dalam kebuntuan negosiasi dagang AS-Tiongkok dapat membentuk lingkungan yang mendukung aset safe haven, dan memburuknya ketegangan dapat mengangkat nilai emas dan JPY secara signifikan.
 

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14/05/2019

Language of the Week: Bavarian

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

If you are a foregner traveling to Bavaria, in Southern Germany, and you have a good ear for languages, you might notice that other than German something else is spoken there which you might not be able to place. It is Bavarian, also known as Austro-Bavarian, Boarisch, or Bairisch. Other than Bavaria, it is spoken in most of Austria, southern Tyrol in Italy, and the village of Samnaun, in the Swiss Alps, and in the Hungarian city of Sopron, near the Austrian border. Related to Alammannic (the variaty of German spoken in Switzerland), Bairisch has around 14 million native speakers. 

Bavarian is not a dialect of Standard German (Hochdeutsch), although they share the same roots. The two are languages of the West Germanic branch, but Standard German derives from High German, wherea Bairisch derives from Upper German, itself a branch of Standard German. 

The two are more apart then Norwegian and Danish, which roughly means that a speaker of Standard German will more or less understand Bairisch at first, but they will get familiar with it quickly if spending some time in the region. In 2009, the Barisch language was included in the Chart of Regional and Minority Languages by the UNESCO.

Here0's a few examples of Bairisch:

i schau (I look), Standard German ich shaue.

i fui (I feel), SG ich fühle

i få, mia fåma (I, you travel), SG ich fahre, wir fahren

Gfå (dangerous), SG gefärlich

Doud (dead), SG Tod.

(below)

Mia redn Boarisch (we speak Bavarian), SG Wir sprechen Bairisch

Pfia God (May God guide you), SG Gehe mit Godd; Pfia is cognate with "fúhren", to guide)

Griass God (Greetings to God), SG Grüss Gott.

 

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