02 / 11 / 2022
EN-ID | INFINOX Week Ahead | Sepekan Mendatang: PMI, Fed, BoE, dan NFP
Agenda pekan ini penuh data penting dari berbagai negara besar. PMI manufaktur dan jasa, inflasi Zona Euro, keputusan suku bunga Fed, BoE, dan RBA, ditutup dengan NFP.
Pekan pertama setiap bulan selalu sibuk dengan rilis data penting. Bukan itu saja, agenda pekan ini juga diramaikan dengan pengumuman sejumlah bank sentral besar, memanjakan para trader data. Sulit untuk menyampaikan dengan ringkas, tetapi kami akan mencoba.
Inflasi inti dan umum Zona Euro diperkirakan terus meningkat pada bulan Oktober, sementara PDB cepat diprediksi negatif pada Q3, mempersulit tugas Bank Sentral Eropa. Tiga bank sentral besar diperkirakan meningkatkan suku bunga. Bank Sentral Australia diprediksi meningkatkan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps, sementara Fed dan Bank Sentral Inggris diperkirakan meningkatkan 75 bps. Seperti biasa, besar kenaikan suku bunga berikutnya sangat penting dalam setiap rapat. Survei ISM diprediksi sedikit menurun. Pekan ini ditutup dengan rilis laporan lapangan kerja penting dari AS. Lapangan kerja non pertanian atau NFP diperkirakan turun ke 200,000 karena pasar tenaga kerja masih tertekan.
Perhatikan:
- Amerika Utara – ISM, lapangan kerja ADP dan NFP, dan tak kalah penting adalah rapat Fed.
- Eropa – Inflasi Zona Euro, PMI final, keputusan Bank Sentral Inggris.
- Asia – PMI Jepang, Tiongkok, Australia; keputusan Bank Sentral Australia.
- Amerika Latin – Tingkat pengangguran Kolombia, produksi industri dan PMI Brasil.
Amerika Utara
Catatan: Proyeksi menggunakan konsensus terkini yang tersedia
Dolar AS (USD)
USD mengalami koreksi besar terhadap forex mayor karena trader memikirkan kemungkinan “pivot Fed”. Kita akan mendengar lebih lanjut dari Fed pekan ini, tetapi banyak yang memperkirakan kenaikan 75bps. Pertanyaannya, apakah Fed akan mulai mengisyaratkan langkah yang lebih tidak agresif untuk rapat Desember dan seterusnya. Jika Fed “bergantung pada data” dan/atau lebih memikirkan dampak ekonomi dari pengetatan agresif, Fed akan mulai condong pada posisi yang lebih tidak hawkish. Rilis data Lapangan Kerja Non-Pertanian atau NFP pada hari Jumat akan makin penting.
Fed yang lebih tidak hawkish akan makin mendorong koreksi USD. Kami memantau level support 109.35 untuk Indeks Dolar sebagai tolok ukur pekan ini.
Dolar Kanada (CAD)
Kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral Kanada/BoC lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pekan lalu. Alasannya bukan BoC tetapi melalui Indeks Dolar dengan prospek “pivot Fed”. Walau begitu, data Kanada akan dipantau, kejutan turun dapat berdampak negatif pada CAD melalui persilangan mayor. Kenaikan pengangguran secara drastis perlu diperhatikan.
- USD/CAD – reaksi terhadap support 1.3495/1.3500 penting dicermati pekan ini. Pivot Fed dapat membuat pasangan mata uang ini melemah dan menembus support. Ini akan membentuk puncak lima pekan dan menandakan koreksi menuju 1.3200. Di atas 1.3750/1.3775 akan kembali lebih positif.
Komoditas
Imbal hasil obligasi “riil” AS menurun sepekan terakhir, sehingga USD pun terdampak. Jika ini berlanjut, komoditas dapat terbantu. Belum ada pemulihan tegas untuk emas, tetapi walaupun pergerakannya tidak stabil, perak sedang mengalami pemulihan. Kami juga melihat minyak mengalami pantulan saat ini. Namun, jika prospek ekonomi AS terus memburuk, prospek permintaan minyak global akan sangat dipertanyakan dan mungkin dapat membatasi reli.
- Minyak Mentah Brent – Pergerakan kembali menyentuh level tertinggi $90-an membentuk tren naik lima minggu dan memberi bias yang sedikit positif untuk prospek. Walau begitu, bulls perlu pergerakan tegas ke atas resistance $99.50 untuk memulai pemulihan.
- Eas – Bull yang kembali gagal di bawah area resistance $1680/$1690 mempertahankan prospek negatif dengan tren turun enam bulan. Pergerakan di bawah higher low mini di $1638 akan menguji kembali level terendah September penting yaitu $1615.
- Perak – Prospek masih tidak pasti dengan pergerakan yang tidak menentu. Bertahan di atas $18.80 memberi bias yang sedikit positif. Resistance di $19.65/$19.77 mempertahankan harapan pemulihan.
Wall Street
Awal musim laporan pendapatan yang positif tercemar oleh laporan pendapatan yang mengecewakan dari perusahaan teknologi raksasa seperti Amazon, Facebook, dan Microsoft. Ini membebani performa NASDAQ terhadap Dow. Ini juga membebani pemulihan Wall Street baru-baru ini. Artinya, pekan ini mungkin penting bagi prospek jangka menengah. Support perlu bertahan untuk mencegah terjadinya reli lagi yang dijadikan kesempatan untuk menjual.
- Futures S&P 500 – Pemulihan telah mundur ke support breakout antara 3775/3820. Sekarang ini adalah momen penting bagi Wall Street. Pergerakan ke bawah support 3735 akan menandakan reli gagal dan dapat memulai aksi jual baru.
- Futures NASDAQ 100 – Setelah gagal menembus resistance penting 11728, futures indeks teknologi terhempas. Penutupan di atas higher low 10935 akan menghentikan pemulihan dan membuka kembali level terendah Oktober penting di 10485.
- Futures Dow – Bobot saham teknologi sangat rendah dalam indeks Dow, sehingga bertahan jauh lebih baik dibandingkan NASDAQ dan S&P 500. Bahkan jika pasar turun, ada support pivot yang baik antara 30970/31380. Resistance di 32660 adalah hambatan penting.
Asia:
Catatan: Proyeksi menggunakan konsensus terkini yang tersedia
Yen Jepang (JPY)
Sejumlah imbal hasil global mulai menurun, dan pemulihan JPY terlihat dalam sepekan terakhir. Bank Sentral Jepang tidak banyak bergerak untuk mengubah jalur dovish, sehingga JPY berkorelasi positif terhadap selisih suku bunga. Karena itu, rapat Fed akan menjadi agenda risiko penting bagi JPY (begitu pula rilis NFP). Penurunan imbal hasil AS dapat mendukung pemulihan JPY terhadap persilangan mayor.
- USD/JPY – Volatilitas trading yang melonjak tajam dalam sepekan terakhir dan pergerakan koreksi USD menyeret ke support penting level tertinggi September lama yaitu di 145.00/145.90. Dari sana, USD kembali menguat dengan potensi kenaikan baru. Di atas 149.50 membuka kembali level tertinggi 151.95.
- AUD/JPY – Prospek menjadi jauh lebih tidak menentu dalam sepekan terakhir. Bayangan panjang pada lilin harian dan penutupan harian yang berfluktuasi mengisyaratkan prospek yang tidak pasti. Namun, bertahan di atas support 94.20 memberi sedikit kecenderungan naik untuk tekanan pada resistance 95.30/95.75.
Dolar Australia (AUD)
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) diprediksi akan kembali berhati-hati dengan meningkatkan suku bunga sebesar +25bps. Namun, inflasi Q3 pekan lalu yang lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi membantu mengangkat AUD untuk jangka pendek dan membuat rapat ini sedikit lebih tidak pasti.
- AUD/USD – Pemulihan jangka pendek terhambat. Isu utama pekan ini adalah apakah support di sekitar 0.6345/0.6390 dapat bertahan. Jika support gagal bertahan, ini menandakan kembalinya tekanan jual dan berlanjutnya strategi jual saat menguat. Resistance di 0.6520/0.6550 makin kuat.
Dolar Selandia Baru (NZD)
Setelah terpukul selama Agustus dan September, bulan Oktober lebih baik untuk NZD. NZD adalah mata uang mayor dengan performa terbaik selama dua minggu terakhir, dan ada pertanda bahwa pergerakan tersebut akan berlanjut.
- NZD/USD – Pemulihan telah mematahkan tren turun 10 minggu dengan tegas. Namun, seiring pergerakan ini, pertanyaannya adalah apakah penurunan dipandang sebagai peluang untuk membeli. Reaksi terhadap support di antara 0.5670/0.5775 sangat penting. Resistance di 0.5875 adalah hambatan untuk 0.6000.
https://www.infinox.com/fsc/id/ix-intel/sepekan-mendatang-pmi-fed-boe-dan-nfp
By: Richard Perry
You can’t move for tier-one data for major economies this week. Manufacturing and services PMIs, Eurozone inflation, the Fed, BoE and RBA rates decisions all come before the week is rounded off by Nonfarm Payrolls.
The first trading week of the month is always busy with tier-one data. However, with a flood of major central banks into the mix, we are left with a data trader’s dream week. It may be difficult to keep this succinct, but we will give it a go.
Both core and headline Eurozone inflation are expected to continue higher in October whilst flash GDP is expected to turn negative in Q3, making the ECB’s job even harder. There is a trio of major central bank rate hikes due. The RBA is expected to hike by 25 basis points, whilst 75bps are expected from both the Fed and the Bank of England. As ever the size of further hikes will be key for all meetings. Slight declines are expected in the ISM surveys. The week rounds off with the crucial US jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to drop to an all but neutral 200,000 as the labour market tightness continues.
Watch for:
- North America – ISM, jobs from the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, and crucially the FOMC meeting.
- Europe – Eurozone inflation and GDP, final PMIs and the Bank of England.
- Asia – PMIs for Japan, China and Australia; with the Reserve Bank of Australia
- LatAm –Colombian unemployment along with Brazilian industrial production and PMIs.
North America
N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus
US dollar (USD)
There has been an enormous correction on the USD against major forex as traders have pondered the prospects of a “Fed pivot”. We will learn more from the Fed this week, but a 75bps hike is hotly expected. The question is whether the Fed starts to signal a less aggressive approach for the December meeting and beyond. If the Fed is “data dependent” and/or more mindful of the economic impact of aggressive tightening, it would begin to paint a less hawkish position. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will then take on added importance.
A less hawkish Fed would give further fuel to the USD correction. We would be watching the 109.35 support on the Dollar Index as a gauge this week.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Bank of Canada hiked by less than expected last week. The inference was not on the BoC but instead having ripples through the Dollar Index with the prospect of a “Fed pivot”. Despite this, Canadian data will be watched now for downside surprises which could weigh on CAD in its major crosses. Unemployment rising decisively should be watched.
- USD/CAD – The reaction to support at 1.3495/1.3500 will be key this week. A Fed pivot in the FOMC could drive the pair lower to break the support. This would form a five-week top and imply a correction towards 1.3200. Above 1.3750/1.3775 would be more positive again.
Commodities
With US “real” bond yields falling over in the past week, there has been a drag on the USD. If this continues, it should help to support commodities. There has not been a decisive recovery on gold yet, but despite choppy moves, silver is in recovery. We are also seeing oil rebounding for now. However, if there is a continued deterioration in the US economic outlook, this seriously questions the outlook for global oil demand and would likely restrict the rally.
- Brent Crude Oil – A move back towards the high $90s has formed a five-week uptrend and leaves a slight positive bias to the outlook. Despite this, the bulls need a decisive break above the $99.50 resistance to open the recovery.
- Gold – Another bull failure under the $1680/$1690 resistance area has maintained a negative outlook under a six-month downtrend. A move below a mini higher low at $1638 would retest the $1615 key September low.
- Silver – The outlook remains uncertain with the moves indecisive. Holding above $18.80/$19.20 leaves a very slight positive bias. Resistance at $19.65/$19.77 is holding back recovery hopes.
Wall Street
A positive start to the earnings season has been weighed down by some disappointing earnings from tech giants such as Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft. This is weighing on the performance of the NASDAQ versus the Dow. It is also weighing on the recent recovery on Wall Street. It means that this week could be key for the medium-term outlook. Supports need to hold to prevent yet another rally from being used as a chance to sell.
- S&P 500 futures – The recovery has pulled back into breakout support between 3775/3820. This is now an important moment for Wall Street. A move below support at 3735 would suggest the rally is failing and could open renewed selling.
- NASDAQ 100 futures – Having failed to break above the 11728 key resistance, futures for the tech index have fallen hard. A close below the higher low at 10935 would abort the recovery and re-open the 10485 key October low.
- Dow futures – The Dow has very little tech weighting and has held up much better than NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Even if the market is weighed down, there is good pivot support between 30970/31380. Resistance at 32660 is a key barrier.
Asia:
N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus
Japanese yen (JPY)
With global yields beginning to track lower, we have seen a JPY recovery in the past week. With the BoJ doing little to change tack on its dovish path, this leaves JPY positively correlated to yield differentials. It means the FOMC meeting will be a key risk event for JPY (as will Nonfarm Payrolls). Falling US yields would help support a JPY recovery on its major crosses.
- USD/JPY – A massive jump in trading volatility in the past week along with a USD corrective move dragged back to key support of the old September highs at 145.00/145.90. Picking up from there the USD is strengthening again with renewed upside potential. Above 149.50 re-opens the 151.95 highs.
- AUD/JPY – The outlook has become far more uncertain in the past week. Long shadows on the daily candles and fluctuating daily closes reflect an indecisive outlook. However, holding above 94.20 support leaves a mild upside bias for pressure on the 95.30/95.75 resistance.
Australian dollar (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to be cautious again with another +25bps hike. However, last week’s higher-than-expected Q3 inflation has helped to support AUD near-term and will make the meeting a little less certain.
- AUD/USD – A near-term recovery has been dragged back. The key issue for this week is whether support around 0.6345/0.6390 can hold. Losing this support would suggest renewing selling pressure and a continuation of a sell into strength strategy. Resistance at 0.6520/0.6550 is strengthening.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Having been deeply unloved between August and September, the NZD is finding October is much kinder. The NZD is the best-performing major currency of the past two weeks and shows good signs of continuing the move.
- NZD/USD – The recovery has decisively broke a 10 week downtrend. But as the move begins to roll over the question is whether the weakness is seen as a chance to buy. Reaction to support between 0.5670/0.5775 will be key. Resistance at 0.5875 is a barrier to 0.6000.
You can’t move for tier-one data for major economies this week. Manufacturing and services PMIs, Eurozone inflation, the Fed, BoE and RBA rates decisions all come before the week is rounded off by Nonfarm Payrolls.
The first trading week of the month is always busy with tier-one data. However, with a flood of major central banks into the mix, we are left with a data trader’s dream week. It may be difficult to keep this succinct, but we will give it a go.
Both core and headline Eurozone inflation are expected to continue higher in October whilst flash GDP is expected to turn negative in Q3, making the ECB’s job even harder. There is a trio of major central bank rate hikes due. The RBA is expected to hike by 25 basis points, whilst 75bps are expected from both the Fed and the Bank of England. As ever the size of further hikes will be key for all meetings. Slight declines are expected in the ISM surveys. The week rounds off with the crucial US jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to drop to an all but neutral 200,000 as the labour market tightness continues.
Watch for:
- North America – ISM, jobs from the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, and crucially the FOMC meeting.
- Europe – Eurozone inflation and GDP, final PMIs and the Bank of England.
- Asia – PMIs for Japan, China and Australia; with the Reserve Bank of Australia
- LatAm –Colombian unemployment along with Brazilian industrial production and PMIs.
North America
N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus
US dollar (USD)
There has been an enormous correction on the USD against major forex as traders have pondered the prospects of a “Fed pivot”. We will learn more from the Fed this week, but a 75bps hike is hotly expected. The question is whether the Fed starts to signal a less aggressive approach for the December meeting and beyond. If the Fed is “data dependent” and/or more mindful of the economic impact of aggressive tightening, it would begin to paint a less hawkish position. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will then take on added importance.
A less hawkish Fed would give further fuel to the USD correction. We would be watching the 109.35 support on the Dollar Index as a gauge this week.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Bank of Canada hiked by less than expected last week. The inference was not on the BoC but instead having ripples through the Dollar Index with the prospect of a “Fed pivot”. Despite this, Canadian data will be watched now for downside surprises which could weigh on CAD in its major crosses. Unemployment rising decisively should be watched.
- USD/CAD – The reaction to support at 1.3495/1.3500 will be key this week. A Fed pivot in the FOMC could drive the pair lower to break the support. This would form a five-week top and imply a correction towards 1.3200. Above 1.3750/1.3775 would be more positive again.
Commodities
With US “real” bond yields falling over in the past week, there has been a drag on the USD. If this continues, it should help to support commodities. There has not been a decisive recovery on gold yet, but despite choppy moves, silver is in recovery. We are also seeing oil rebounding for now. However, if there is a continued deterioration in the US economic outlook, this seriously questions the outlook for global oil demand and would likely restrict the rally.
- Brent Crude Oil – A move back towards the high $90s has formed a five-week uptrend and leaves a slight positive bias to the outlook. Despite this, the bulls need a decisive break above the $99.50 resistance to open the recovery.
- Gold – Another bull failure under the $1680/$1690 resistance area has maintained a negative outlook under a six-month downtrend. A move below a mini higher low at $1638 would retest the $1615 key September low.
- Silver – The outlook remains uncertain with the moves indecisive. Holding above $18.80/$19.20 leaves a very slight positive bias. Resistance at $19.65/$19.77 is holding back recovery hopes.
Wall Street
A positive start to the earnings season has been weighed down by some disappointing earnings from tech giants such as Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft. This is weighing on the performance of the NASDAQ versus the Dow. It is also weighing on the recent recovery on Wall Street. It means that this week could be key for the medium-term outlook. Supports need to hold to prevent yet another rally from being used as a chance to sell.
- S&P 500 futures – The recovery has pulled back into breakout support between 3775/3820. This is now an important moment for Wall Street. A move below support at 3735 would suggest the rally is failing and could open renewed selling.
- NASDAQ 100 futures – Having failed to break above the 11728 key resistance, futures for the tech index have fallen hard. A close below the higher low at 10935 would abort the recovery and re-open the 10485 key October low.
- Dow futures – The Dow has very little tech weighting and has held up much better than NASDAQ and the S&P 500. Even if the market is weighed down, there is good pivot support between 30970/31380. Resistance at 32660 is a key barrier.
Asia:
N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus
Japanese yen (JPY)
With global yields beginning to track lower, we have seen a JPY recovery in the past week. With the BoJ doing little to change tack on its dovish path, this leaves JPY positively correlated to yield differentials. It means the FOMC meeting will be a key risk event for JPY (as will Nonfarm Payrolls). Falling US yields would help support a JPY recovery on its major crosses.
- USD/JPY – A massive jump in trading volatility in the past week along with a USD corrective move dragged back to key support of the old September highs at 145.00/145.90. Picking up from there the USD is strengthening again with renewed upside potential. Above 149.50 re-opens the 151.95 highs.
- AUD/JPY – The outlook has become far more uncertain in the past week. Long shadows on the daily candles and fluctuating daily closes reflect an indecisive outlook. However, holding above 94.20 support leaves a mild upside bias for pressure on the 95.30/95.75 resistance.
Australian dollar (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to be cautious again with another +25bps hike. However, last week’s higher-than-expected Q3 inflation has helped to support AUD near-term and will make the meeting a little less certain.
- AUD/USD – A near-term recovery has been dragged back. The key issue for this week is whether support around 0.6345/0.6390 can hold. Losing this support would suggest renewing selling pressure and a continuation of a sell into strength strategy. Resistance at 0.6520/0.6550 is strengthening.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Having been deeply unloved between August and September, the NZD is finding October is much kinder. The NZD is the best-performing major currency of the past two weeks and shows good signs of continuing the move.
- NZD/USD – The recovery has decisively broke a 10 week downtrend. But as the move begins to roll over the question is whether the weakness is seen as a chance to buy. Reaction to support between 0.5670/0.5775 will be key. Resistance at 0.5875 is a barrier to 0.6000.
Agenda pekan ini penuh data penting dari berbagai negara besar. PMI manufaktur dan jasa, inflasi Zona Euro, keputusan suku bunga Fed, BoE, dan RBA, ditutup dengan NFP.
Pekan pertama setiap bulan selalu sibuk dengan rilis data penting. Bukan itu saja, agenda pekan ini juga diramaikan dengan pengumuman sejumlah bank sentral besar, memanjakan para trader data. Sulit untuk menyampaikan dengan ringkas, tetapi kami akan mencoba.
Inflasi inti dan umum Zona Euro diperkirakan terus meningkat pada bulan Oktober, sementara PDB cepat diprediksi negatif pada Q3, mempersulit tugas Bank Sentral Eropa. Tiga bank sentral besar diperkirakan meningkatkan suku bunga. Bank Sentral Australia diprediksi meningkatkan suku bunga sebesar 25 bps, sementara Fed dan Bank Sentral Inggris diperkirakan meningkatkan 75 bps. Seperti biasa, besar kenaikan suku bunga berikutnya sangat penting dalam setiap rapat. Survei ISM diprediksi sedikit menurun. Pekan ini ditutup dengan rilis laporan lapangan kerja penting dari AS. Lapangan kerja non pertanian atau NFP diperkirakan turun ke 200,000 karena pasar tenaga kerja masih tertekan.
Perhatikan:
- Amerika Utara – ISM, lapangan kerja ADP dan NFP, dan tak kalah penting adalah rapat Fed.
- Eropa – Inflasi Zona Euro, PMI final, keputusan Bank Sentral Inggris.
- Asia – PMI Jepang, Tiongkok, Australia; keputusan Bank Sentral Australia.
- Amerika Latin – Tingkat pengangguran Kolombia, produksi industri dan PMI Brasil.
Amerika Utara
Catatan: Proyeksi menggunakan konsensus terkini yang tersedia
Dolar AS (USD)
USD mengalami koreksi besar terhadap forex mayor karena trader memikirkan kemungkinan “pivot Fed”. Kita akan mendengar lebih lanjut dari Fed pekan ini, tetapi banyak yang memperkirakan kenaikan 75bps. Pertanyaannya, apakah Fed akan mulai mengisyaratkan langkah yang lebih tidak agresif untuk rapat Desember dan seterusnya. Jika Fed “bergantung pada data” dan/atau lebih memikirkan dampak ekonomi dari pengetatan agresif, Fed akan mulai condong pada posisi yang lebih tidak hawkish. Rilis data Lapangan Kerja Non-Pertanian atau NFP pada hari Jumat akan makin penting.
Fed yang lebih tidak hawkish akan makin mendorong koreksi USD. Kami memantau level support 109.35 untuk Indeks Dolar sebagai tolok ukur pekan ini.
Dolar Kanada (CAD)
Kenaikan suku bunga Bank Sentral Kanada/BoC lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pekan lalu. Alasannya bukan BoC tetapi melalui Indeks Dolar dengan prospek “pivot Fed”. Walau begitu, data Kanada akan dipantau, kejutan turun dapat berdampak negatif pada CAD melalui persilangan mayor. Kenaikan pengangguran secara drastis perlu diperhatikan.
- USD/CAD – reaksi terhadap support 1.3495/1.3500 penting dicermati pekan ini. Pivot Fed dapat membuat pasangan mata uang ini melemah dan menembus support. Ini akan membentuk puncak lima pekan dan menandakan koreksi menuju 1.3200. Di atas 1.3750/1.3775 akan kembali lebih positif.
Komoditas
Imbal hasil obligasi “riil” AS menurun sepekan terakhir, sehingga USD pun terdampak. Jika ini berlanjut, komoditas dapat terbantu. Belum ada pemulihan tegas untuk emas, tetapi walaupun pergerakannya tidak stabil, perak sedang mengalami pemulihan. Kami juga melihat minyak mengalami pantulan saat ini. Namun, jika prospek ekonomi AS terus memburuk, prospek permintaan minyak global akan sangat dipertanyakan dan mungkin dapat membatasi reli.
- Minyak Mentah Brent – Pergerakan kembali menyentuh level tertinggi $90-an membentuk tren naik lima minggu dan memberi bias yang sedikit positif untuk prospek. Walau begitu, bulls perlu pergerakan tegas ke atas resistance $99.50 untuk memulai pemulihan.
- Eas – Bull yang kembali gagal di bawah area resistance $1680/$1690 mempertahankan prospek negatif dengan tren turun enam bulan. Pergerakan di bawah higher low mini di $1638 akan menguji kembali level terendah September penting yaitu $1615.
- Perak – Prospek masih tidak pasti dengan pergerakan yang tidak menentu. Bertahan di atas $18.80 memberi bias yang sedikit positif. Resistance di $19.65/$19.77 mempertahankan harapan pemulihan.
Wall Street
Awal musim laporan pendapatan yang positif tercemar oleh laporan pendapatan yang mengecewakan dari perusahaan teknologi raksasa seperti Amazon, Facebook, dan Microsoft. Ini membebani performa NASDAQ terhadap Dow. Ini juga membebani pemulihan Wall Street baru-baru ini. Artinya, pekan ini mungkin penting bagi prospek jangka menengah. Support perlu bertahan untuk mencegah terjadinya reli lagi yang dijadikan kesempatan untuk menjual.
- Futures S&P 500 – Pemulihan telah mundur ke support breakout antara 3775/3820. Sekarang ini adalah momen penting bagi Wall Street. Pergerakan ke bawah support 3735 akan menandakan reli gagal dan dapat memulai aksi jual baru.
- Futures NASDAQ 100 – Setelah gagal menembus resistance penting 11728, futures indeks teknologi terhempas. Penutupan di atas higher low 10935 akan menghentikan pemulihan dan membuka kembali level terendah Oktober penting di 10485.
- Futures Dow – Bobot saham teknologi sangat rendah dalam indeks Dow, sehingga bertahan jauh lebih baik dibandingkan NASDAQ dan S&P 500. Bahkan jika pasar turun, ada support pivot yang baik antara 30970/31380. Resistance di 32660 adalah hambatan penting.
Asia:
Catatan: Proyeksi menggunakan konsensus terkini yang tersedia
Yen Jepang (JPY)
Sejumlah imbal hasil global mulai menurun, dan pemulihan JPY terlihat dalam sepekan terakhir. Bank Sentral Jepang tidak banyak bergerak untuk mengubah jalur dovish, sehingga JPY berkorelasi positif terhadap selisih suku bunga. Karena itu, rapat Fed akan menjadi agenda risiko penting bagi JPY (begitu pula rilis NFP). Penurunan imbal hasil AS dapat mendukung pemulihan JPY terhadap persilangan mayor.
- USD/JPY – Volatilitas trading yang melonjak tajam dalam sepekan terakhir dan pergerakan koreksi USD menyeret ke support penting level tertinggi September lama yaitu di 145.00/145.90. Dari sana, USD kembali menguat dengan potensi kenaikan baru. Di atas 149.50 membuka kembali level tertinggi 151.95.
- AUD/JPY – Prospek menjadi jauh lebih tidak menentu dalam sepekan terakhir. Bayangan panjang pada lilin harian dan penutupan harian yang berfluktuasi mengisyaratkan prospek yang tidak pasti. Namun, bertahan di atas support 94.20 memberi sedikit kecenderungan naik untuk tekanan pada resistance 95.30/95.75.
Dolar Australia (AUD)
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) diprediksi akan kembali berhati-hati dengan meningkatkan suku bunga sebesar +25bps. Namun, inflasi Q3 pekan lalu yang lebih tinggi dari ekspektasi membantu mengangkat AUD untuk jangka pendek dan membuat rapat ini sedikit lebih tidak pasti.
- AUD/USD – Pemulihan jangka pendek terhambat. Isu utama pekan ini adalah apakah support di sekitar 0.6345/0.6390 dapat bertahan. Jika support gagal bertahan, ini menandakan kembalinya tekanan jual dan berlanjutnya strategi jual saat menguat. Resistance di 0.6520/0.6550 makin kuat.
Dolar Selandia Baru (NZD)
Setelah terpukul selama Agustus dan September, bulan Oktober lebih baik untuk NZD. NZD adalah mata uang mayor dengan performa terbaik selama dua minggu terakhir, dan ada pertanda bahwa pergerakan tersebut akan berlanjut.
- NZD/USD – Pemulihan telah mematahkan tren turun 10 minggu dengan tegas. Namun, seiring pergerakan ini, pertanyaannya adalah apakah penurunan dipandang sebagai peluang untuk membeli. Reaksi terhadap support di antara 0.5670/0.5775 sangat penting. Resistance di 0.5875 adalah hambatan untuk 0.6000.
