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insight by wfx

Welcome to Wordwide FX's new enterprise!

Insight by WFX is a synthesis of our passion for languages and the financial markets. Here you will find technical and fundamental analyses from our clients, media partners and contributors in different languages, as well as discussions on languages and translation. And of course we will keep you updated on what is happening inside Wordwide FX Financial Translations. Hope you enjoy it! Greetings from the Wordwide FX team!

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31/01/2019

The Widely-Spoken Languages We Still Cannot Translate Online

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Via wired.com

IN THE INTERNET age, when we face a language barrier, there are a host of internet resources to solve it: things like translation apps, dictionary websites, versions of Wikipediain other languages, and the simple "click to translate" option. But there are about 7000 languages spoken in the world today. The top 10 or so are spoken by hundred of millions of speakers; the bottom third have 1000 speakers or fewer.

But in the murky middle ground are a couple hundred languages that are spoken by speakers in millions. These midsize languages are still fairly widely spoken, but they have vastly inconsistent levels of support online. There’s Swedish, which has 9.6 million speakers, the third-largest Wikipedia with over 3 million articles, and support in Google Translate, Bing Translate, Facebook, Siri, YouTube captions, and so on. But there’s also Odia, the official language of the Odisha state in India, with 38 million speakers, which has no presence in Google Translate. And Oromo, a language spoken by some 34 million people, mostly in Ethiopia, which has just 772 articles in its Wikipedia.

Why do Greek, Czech, Hungarian, and Swedish, with their 8 to 13 million speakers, have Google Translate support and robust Wikipedia presences, while languages the same size or larger, like Bhojpuri (51 million), Fula (24 million), Sylheti (11 million), Quechua (9 million), and Kirundi (9 million) languish in technological obscurity?

Part of the reason is that Greek, Czech, Hungarian, and Swedish are among the 24 official languages of the European Union, which means that a small hoard of human translators translate many official European Parliament documents every year. Human-translated documents make a great base for what linguists call a parallel corpus — a large mass of text that's equivalent, sentence-by-sentence, in multiple languages. Machine translation engines use parallel corpora to figure out regular correspondences between languages: if "regering" or "κυβέρνηση" or "kormány" or "vláda" all frequently appear in parallel to "government," then the machine concludes these words are equivalent.

In order to be reasonably effective, machine translation requires an enormous parallel corpus for each language. Ideally, this corpus contains documents from a variety of genres: not just parliamentary proceedings but news reports, novels, film scripts, and so on. The machine can't translate informal social media posts very well if it's been trained only on formal legal documents. Translation tools are already scraping the bottom of the parallel corpus barrel: In many languages, the largest parallel translated text is the Bible, which leads to peculiar circumstances where Google translates nonsense syllables into prophecies of doom.

In addition to EU documents, Swedish, Greek, Hungarian, and Czech have a wealth of language resources, created one human at a time over centuries. They're the languages of entire nation-states, with national TV and radio recordings that can be used as the foundation for text-to-speech models. Their speakers have the kind of disposable income that makes media companies translate popular novels and subtitle foreign movies and TV shows. They're found in countries that tech companies imagine their customers might be living in or might at least visit on holiday, meaning it's worth localizing interfaces and adding them as translation options. They have regularized spelling systems and dictionaries that can be rolled into spellcheckers and predictive text models. They have highly literate speakers with internet access who can contribute to projects like Wikipedia. (Speakers who can even, in the case of Swedish, create a bot to automatically make basic Wikipedia articles for rivers, mountains, and other natural features.)

Language resources don't just appear. People have to decide to create them, and those people need to be fed and watered and educated and housed and supported, whether that's by governments or by companies or by the kind of personal wealth that lets individuals take on time-consuming intellectual hobbies. Creating parallel corpora and other language resources takes years, if it happens at all, and costtens of millions of dollars per language.

Meanwhile, we know that catastrophes periodically happen around the world: earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, cyclones, diseases, famines, fires. Some of them will happen in areas where people speak a large, well-resourced language, and organizations will rush to their aid. But the odds are goodthat some of the world's future crises will happen in areas where people speak one of these medium-size but low-resource languages. In those cases, aid organizations and governments will face an urgent language barrier.

The problem is, we don't know which language will desperately need the world's attention next. When an earthquake hit Haiti in 2010, international organizations suddenly required Haitian Creole resources. Ebola outbreaks in West Africa affected speakers of languages like Swahili, Nande, Mbuba, Krio, Mende and Themne. Asylum seekers from Central America often speak languages like Zapotec, Q’anjob’al, K'iche' and Mam. These speakers aren't the ideal customers of big tech companies. They don't have leisure time to edit Wikipedia. They may not even be literate in their mother tongue, communicating by voice memoinstead of by text message. But when a crisis hits, internet communication tools will be crucial.

Researchers at Darpa, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, decided to tackle the problem by rethinking the way we translate languages. Instead of creating language-specific tools, Darpa is attempting to build language-agnostic tools that, once created, could spring into action in times of crisis and be tuned to any language with minor tweaking — even if they have just monolingual text scraped from social media rather than carefully translated parallel corpora.

They also changed their goals. It's too hard to jump right to full-blown machine translators that produce idiomatic prose, according to Dr. Boyan Onyshkevych, program manager at Darpa's Information Innovation Office. Instead, they carve out more manageable tasks, such as linking all the proper nouns in a passage with their equivalents in a more widely-spoken language. Automatically identifying entities in this way can help provide clues about the overall situation — say, which rivers are flooding, which villages are affected by an outbreak, or which people are missing.

Darpa funds researchers year-round at a couple dozen universities and companies; then, twice a year, they test them, in a "linguistic crisis simulation" event, where teams of researchers translate imaginary catastrophe reports in a surprise mystery language. For the first round, the teams have 24 hours to figure out as much useful information as possible from social media, blogs, and news reports, with the help of a few resources like a basic dictionary and an hour of time with a native speaker of the language. Then Darpa adds in more social media data and more time with a speaker, and the teams go at it again. Later, the results and data sets from such simulations are often published online so they can eventually be rolled into tools like Siri and Google Translate.

Methods like these use the resources of the internet age to solve the problems of the internet age. Smaller languages may not have extensive books or parliamentary records to train a language processor; they may not have very many professional translators. But they do have thousands or millions of speakers hanging out on social media and posting, like all of us do, about the weather and what they had for lunch. These posters are potentially sowing the seeds of their own survival, should catastrophe strike — their tweets and blog posts could get scooped up to teach the rest of the world how to help.

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29/01/2019

분주한 한주를 앞둔 금융시장

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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

작성자: FXTM 수석 시장 전략가 Hussein Sayed

민주당과 공화당의 국경 장벽 예산 타결을 기대하는 트럼프 대통령이 셧다운을 3주간 풀기로 발표함에 따라 역대 최장 기간 지속된 연방정부 셧다운이 마침내 종료되었습니다.  이 소식에도 시장은 거의 움직임을 보이지 않았습니다.

 

다보스에서 열린 세계경제포럼은 트럼프 대통령과 시진핑 주석이 불참함에 따라 주목할 만한 뉴스를 만들어내지 못했습니다. 미중간 무역분쟁 해결 상황이나 영국의 EU 탈퇴 조건을 알 수 있는 답변은 없었습니다. 단지 IMF가 글로벌 경제 성장률을 하향 조정했다는 소식 뿐이며, 이는 이미 금융시장에서 예측되었던 것입니다. 

 

이번 주는 미연준이 올해 첫 정책회의를 열고, 미국과 중국이 협상 테이블로 복귀하며, 또 다른 브렉시트 투표가 예정되어 있고, 미국 주요 IT 기업의 실적과 경제지표 발표가 예정되어 있어 중요한 한 주가 될 것으로 보입니다.

 

미연준은 계속해서 강세장을 뒷받침할까?

 

이틀간 진행되는 미연준 회의는 수요일에 끝납니다.  투자자들은 통화긴축정책 지속 여부에 주목할 것입니다. 셧다운으로 인해 많은 경제지표가 발표되지 않았음을 감안할 때 미국 경제 상황을 평가하기가 어려울 것으로 보입니다. 미중간 무역협상이 협상 기한인 3월 1일 이전에 타결된다는 보장이 없다는 점도 미연준이 신중한 입장을 보일 것으로 판단되는 이유입니다. 경제전망에 변화는 없겠지만 회의 후 제롬 파월 연준 의장의 기자회견이 있을 예정입니다.  '인내'라는 표현이 다시 등장한다면 1분기에 금리인상이 없다는 의미이고 더 나아가 상반기에 금리인상이 없을 수도 있습니다. 이는 증시에 호재지만 달러에 타격을 줄 수 있습니다.

 

협상 타결? 결렬?

 

이번 주 미국과 중국이 무역분쟁을 끝내기 위해 협상 테이블로 복귀합니다. 1월 30일, 31일 류허 부총리와 로버트 라이트하이저(Robert Lighthizer) 미국측 무역협상 대표가 회동합니다. 이번 주에 최종 합의안이 마련될 것으로 예상되지 않지만 투자자들은 양측이 만족스러운 미소와 함께 회의를 끝내고 큰 협상 진전을 확인할 수 잇는 성명문이 발표되기를 기대하고 있습니다.   회의 후 성명 발표가 없다면, 회의 결과를 알 수 있는 트럼트 대통령의 트윗을 주목하면 됩니다.  긍정적인 결과가 있다면 위험선호 심리에 가장 큰 장애물이 제거되는 것입니다.

 

브렉시트 플랜 B

 

지난 며칠간 파운드화는 노딜 시나리오를 피할 것이라는 기대감에 랠리를 펼쳤습니다.   "플랜 A"와 많이 비슷해 보이는 “플랜 B”를 놓고 1월 29일 토론을 벌이고 당일 늦게 표결을 진행할 것으로 보입니다. 제레미 코빈(Jeremy Corbyn) 노동당 당수는 '노딜' 시나리오를 제외하지 않는 협상에 대한 참여를 거부했습니다. 메이 총리가 해당 개정안을 포함하지 않을 것으로 보이므로 가장 현실적으로 결론은 50조항 연장입니다.

 

미국 실적발표

 

이번 주는 Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla 등 주요 IT 기업의 4분기 실적 발표가 예정되어 있어 분주한 한 주가 될 전망입니다. 기술주는 S&P 500 시총의 1/4 이상을 차지하므로 미증시의 방향을 결정할 가능성이 높습니다.

 

 

자세한 내용은 다음 링크를 참조하십시오. FXTM                     

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28/01/2019

El par avanza hacia los siguientes objetivos

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By Greg Michalowski @GregMikeFX, Director of Client Education at ForexLive. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

La caída del Nasdaq empieza a pesar un tanto sobre el USDJPY. El par ha descendido a mínimos de sesión y, en el proceso, avanza hacia la zona de giro y el retroceso del 38,2% en 109,189 y 109,141, respectivamente.

 

 

Las bolsas ya han salido de los mínimos del día, pero parte del temor es que las bolsas están perdiendo posiciones después de un recorrido bastante decente que sacó a los precios de los mínimos de diciembre.

En cuanto al Nasdaq, el índice sube alrededor de un 16% con respecto a los mínimos y, en el proceso, pone a prueba el 50% de la bajada que arrancó de los máximos históricos en la zona de 7163,108. Ahora mismo, el índice está en 7055, pero sigue por encuna de la MM de 50 días en 6945,525. Así que, desde el punto de vista técnico las cosas no están tan mal, pero hay una batalla entre el 50% y la MM de 50 días entre 7163,108 y 6945 (el 38,2% también entra en juego en 6934,144).

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08/01/2019

Minyak Mentah WTI: Faktor fundamental yang bertolak belakang

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By Lukman Otunuga @Lukman_FXTM, Research Analyst with FXTM. Translated by Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Kekhawatiran yang belum berakhir mengenai pasokan berlebihan dan isyarat penurunan permintaan mengekspos pasar minyak pada kerugian besar di kuartal terakhir tahun 2018. Pandangan pesimis bahwa ekonomi global akan melambat di tahun 2019 membuat prospek minyak tetap negatif memasuki tahun baru ini. 

Risiko geopolitik yang belum berakhir dalam bentuk ketegangan dagang antara AS-China menjadi masalah signifikan terhadap prospek permintaan minyak, dan banyak negara yang melaporkan data ekonomi yang lebih lemah. Ini menyiratkan bahwa bears tetap memegang kendali terhadap fluktuasi minyak di jangka pendek. Kekhawatiran mengenai perlambatan ekonomi global lebih dominan dibanding topik OPEC, karena perhatian pasar akan terfokus pada masalah perlambatan global yang meningkatkan ketidakpastian dan mendorong aksi jual aset berisiko seperti minyak.

Memasuki tahun 2019, harga minyak akan terombang-ambing oleh sejumlah faktor fundamental yang saling berlawanan. Keadaan pasar yang tidak pasti juga akan mewarnai prospek jangka menengah dan panjang. Pemangkasan produksi OPEC dan Rusia dapat mengurangi pasokan yang berlebih, namun juga akan mendorong produksi minyak AS yang lebih tinggi sehingga mengekspos pasar minyak pada masalah oversuplai yang lebih besar lagi. Keadaan dagang AS-China yang semakin tegang, keadaan ekonomi global, dan terutama permintaan minyak China akan sangat memengaruhi permintaan. Pertanda bahwa ekonomi China semakin melambat di tengah ketegangan dagang akan menjadi berita yang sangat buruk bagi pasar energi, terutama mengingat bahwa Asia adalah konsumen besar di pasar minyak.

Penggerak lain yang memengaruhi harga minyak di Q1 antara lain kinerja Dolar dan Tweet dari Presiden AS Donald Trump. Dolar yang melemah di tengah spekulasi bahwa Fed akan menghentikan sementara kenaikan suku bunga akan berdampak positif bagi harga minyak karena denominasi komoditas ini adalah Dolar. Presiden Trump sudah merayakan harga minyak yang rendah melalui Twitter dan memprediksi penurunan lebih lanjut tahun ini. Karena itu, investor perlu bersiap menghadapi kuartal trading yang tetap volatil.

Dari sudut pandang teknis, minyak mentah WTI jelas bearish di rentang mingguan dan bulanan. Penutupan tahunan tegas di bawah $50 pada 2018 menandakan bahwa bears tetap memegang kendali dan level perhatian penting berikutnya adalah $45, $43, dan $36. Trader mingguan akan mencermati bagaimana harga bereaksi terhadap level $43 dan menggunakan rentang ini untuk menilai apakah pantulan teknikal mungkin terjadi.

Pada rentang harian, WTI tetap bearish. Level support sebelumnya yaitu sekitar $50 dapat membuka jalan menuju $43. Sebaliknya, breakout di atas $50 dapat membuka jalan menuju $55.30.

Dinamika permintaan-penawaran jelas tidak terlihat menguntungkan bagi pasar minyak, dan bears menguasai WTI.

 

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20/12/2018

Pooping Logs Bring Christmas Cheer in Catalonia

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Via National Geographic 

Amongst the endless variations of Christmas across cultures, Catalans stand out with a special log-beating ceremony.

If you’re a kid in Catalonia, you don’t get your Christmas treats from a fireplace-hung stocking. Instead, you have to take sticks and beat them out of a blanket-covered wooden log. The Tió de Nadal (or Caga Tió, ‘poop log’), a specially decorated log with a smiley face and little stick legs, is kept in the house from 8 December, when Catalans celebrate the Feast of the Immaculate Conception.

Catalans can get these logs at Christmas markets and even supermarkets. Once tió has taken up residence in the house, children look after it by keeping it warm under a blanket and leaving it food and water every night—the more generous they are, the more the log can be expected to give back.

After all that nurturing, on Christmas Day the log is “ready” to literally poop out its goodies, and is ordered to do so as the children sing songs and take turns to whack it with sticks. Of course, at this point the parents have secretly filled the log with treats such as candy, nuts, and nougat, while the children have been sent out of the room to pray that tió will deliver good presents.

Thus, once all the songs are sung and the log has been given a good beating, the children lift the blanket to find what the log has pooped out, and everyone shares the treats. Traditionally the log was burnt in the fireplace, and ashes scattered on the fields to ensure a good harvest the following year. However, these days the family just stores the log in a cupboard until next year's festivities.

In case you are curious, here are the lyrics to one of the traditional Catalan pooping log songs:

Caga tió,
Caga torró,
Avellanes i mató,
Si no cagues bé
Et daré un cop de bastó.
Caga tió!

English translation:

Shit, log,
Shit nougats (turrón),
Hazelnuts and mató cheese,
If you don't shit well,
I'll hit you with a stick,
Shit, log!

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20/12/2018

Sweden's Burning Christmas Goat

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By Wordwide FX Financial Translations

Via National Geographic

In Scandinavia, a common Christmas symbol of pagan origin is the Yule goat, an ornament in the shape of a goat with horns, made out of straw and tied with plenty of red ribbon.

The Swedish town of Gävle has become world-famous for its gigantic version of the straw goat, placed every year in the town’s central Castle Square.

This tradition was started in 1966, and the 13-metre-high goat even made it into the Guinness Book of Records in 1985 (for world’s biggest straw goat, of course). The Gävle goat has a social media following, but its international fame also stems from a rather unfortunate reason—most years it ends up being destroyed by arsonists and vandals.

Attempts to protect the goat have involved fencing, dousing it in fire retardant, and even volunteer guardians working in shifts, all with mixed results.

This year was the goat’s 50th anniversary, but that did not help it survive. The magnificent straw creature—which takes some 1000 hours to build—went up in flames just hours after its annual inauguration on the first Sunday of Advent.

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